Closing spread
BUF -7
Total
49.5
Model margin
+2.3est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
4.7%est.
the line sits on a key number
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Patriots
- OutBrenden SchoolerSBack· Limited
- OutChristian BarmoreDTShoulder· DNP
- OutChristian GonzalezCBShoulder· DNP
- QuestionableChanning CanadaCBHamstring· Limited
- QuestionableChristian EllissLBChest· Limited
- QuestionableCraig WoodsonSShoulder· Limited
- QuestionableDre'Mont JonesLBShoulder· Limited
- QuestionableEli RaridonTEThigh· Limited
- QuestionableMorgan MosesTFoot· Limited
- QuestionableReggie GilliamFBKnee· Limited
Bills
- DoubtfulT.J. SandersDEIllness· Limited
- QuestionableChristian BenfordCBToe· DNP
- QuestionableRay DavisRBHamstring· Limited
- DNPSam Franklin Jr.SNot injury related - personal matter
- DNPTerrel BernardLBKnee
- LimitedDamar HamlinSRibs
- LimitedDJ MooreWRShoulder
- LimitedKeon ColemanWRAnkle
Win probability
- Bills
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.052EPA / play+0.210
- 45.0%Success rate49.2%
- +0.215EPA / dropback+0.338
- -0.200EPA / rush+0.031
- 8.4%Explosive rate13.6%
- +7.12CPOE+4.89
- 40.8%Third-down rate48.3%
- 61.2%Red-zone TD rate70.0%
- 2.06Points / drive3.19
- 3.1%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 40–16 since 1999
Meetings average 43.1 points. BUF are 21-32-3 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NE–BUF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NE | Q1 13:29 | 12 | 97 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| BUF | Q1 7:01 | 14 | 69 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| NE | Q2 14:15 | 8 | 30 | Turnover | 7–7 |
| BUF | Q2 10:08 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 7–7 |
| NE | Q2 8:21 | 6 | 63 | Touchdown | 14–7 |
| BUF | Q2 5:38 | 11 | 67 | Touchdown | 14–14 |
| NE | Q2 1:00 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 14–14 |
| BUF | Q2 0:29 | 2 | 30 | Turnover | 14–14 |
| NE | Q2 0:16 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 14–17 |
| BUF | Q2 0:05 | 0 | 0 | Field goal | 14–17 |
| NE | Q2 0:02 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 14–17 |
| NE | Q3 15:00 | 15 | 73 | Touchdown | 21–17 |
| BUF | Q3 8:15 | 4 | 5 | Punt | 21–17 |
| NE | Q3 6:23 | 6 | 23 | Punt | 21–17 |
| BUF | Q3 3:24 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 21–17 |
| NE | Q3 2:29 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 21–17 |
| BUF | Q3 0:47 | 9 | 60 | Field goal | 21–20 |
| NE | Q4 11:07 | 7 | 26 | Punt | 21–20 |
| BUF | Q4 6:36 | 5 | 80 | Touchdown | 21–26 |
| NE | Q4 4:27 | 8 | 73 | Touchdown | 29–26 |
| BUF | Q4 1:50 | 4 | 11 | Turnover | 29–26 |
| NE | Q4 1:05 | 4 | 14 | End of half | 29–26 |
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake Maye | 22/37 | 269 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake Maye | 8 | 54 | 6.8 | 0 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 13 | 47 | 3.6 | 1 |
| TreVeyon Henderson | 14 | 42 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hunter Henry | 5 | 5 | 62 | 0 |
| Romeo Doubs | 6 | 9 | 58 | 2 |
| Mack Hollins | 3 | 4 | 53 | 0 |
| Efton Chism III | 2 | 4 | 42 | 1 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 3 | 5 | 27 | 0 |
| DeMario Douglas | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Eli Raridon | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Kyle Williams | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| TreVeyon Henderson | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 23/33 | 253 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Cook | 12 | 75 | 6.3 | 1 |
| DJ Moore | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Josh Allen | 5 | 4 | 0.8 | 1 |
| Ty Johnson | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Ray Davis | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keon Coleman | 6 | 7 | 116 | 1 |
| Khalil Shakir | 7 | 8 | 82 | 0 |
| Dawson Knox | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| DJ Moore | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Ty Johnson | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| James Cook | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Dalton Kincaid | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Ray Davis | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Josh Palmer | 1 | 4 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
4.72%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.3%
Expected total
46.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.11
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.33