Closing spread
—
Total
—
Model margin
+9.9est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
—
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Patriotsedge mapBills
- -0.092EPA / play+0.300
- 40.8%Success rate41.8%
- +0.127EPA / dropback+0.597
- -0.451EPA / rush-0.263
- 1.4%Explosive rate14.5%
- +5.97CPOE+8.14
- 31.3%Third-down rate33.3%
- 50.0%Red-zone TD rate66.7%
- 1.11Points / drive3.07
- 4.2%Turnover rate0.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 39–16 since 1999
Meetings average 42.9 points. BUF are 21-31-3 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+7.71
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+9.93