2022 · Week 18 · Division

Final

Patriots

New England

QB Mac Jones

23·35

Bills

Buffalo

QB Josh Allen

New Era Field · outdoors · a_turf · 30°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

BUF -8

Total

44

Model margin

+3.5est.

BUF perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Patriots

Bills

Win probability

  • Bills
  • Patriots

How each play moved the game.

Bills winsPatriots wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Patriotsedge mapBills
  • -0.047EPA / play+0.111
  • 41.1%Success rate49.0%
  • -0.026EPA / dropback+0.203
  • -0.082EPA / rush-0.064
  • 10.3%Explosive rate9.3%
  • +0.93CPOE+0.35
  • 35.3%Third-down rate51.1%
  • 56.0%Red-zone TD rate61.8%
  • 1.54Points / drive2.48
  • 2.3%Turnover rate2.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 40–16 since 1999

Meetings average 43.1 points. BUF are 21-32-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W4NE @ BUF29–26NE
2025 · W15BUF @ NE35–31BUF
2025 · W5NE @ BUF23–20NE
2024 · W18BUF @ NE16–23NE
2024 · W16NE @ BUF21–24BUF
2023 · W17NE @ BUF21–27BUF
2023 · W7BUF @ NE25–29NE
2022 · W13BUF @ NE24–10BUF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNE–BUF
BUFQ1 15:0000Touchdown0–7
NEQ1 14:463-7Punt0–7
BUFQ1 13:0951Punt0–7
NEQ1 10:29974Touchdown7–7
BUFQ1 5:451375Touchdown7–14
NEQ2 14:1533Punt7–14
BUFQ2 12:44613Punt7–14
NEQ2 9:16974Touchdown14–14
BUFQ2 3:451157Turnover14–14
NEQ2 0:1610End of half14–14
NEQ3 15:001060Turnover14–14
BUFQ3 9:2627Turnover14–14
NEQ3 8:3435Field goal17–20
BUFQ3 7:0600Touchdown17–21
NEQ3 6:53514Punt17–21
BUFQ3 4:37781Touchdown17–28
NEQ3 1:351090Touchdown23–28
BUFQ4 11:37575Touchdown23–35
NEQ4 8:5130Punt23–35
NEQ4 8:22723Turnover23–35
BUFQ4 4:52510Punt23–35
NEQ4 3:2539Turnover23–35
BUFQ4 2:42211End of half23–35

Box score

Individual performances

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mac Jones26/4024333

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rhamondre Stevenson6549.00
Damien Harris13483.70
Mac Jones451.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeVante Parker67792
Kendrick Bourne45450
Hunter Henry67420
Jakobi Meyers37321
Rhamondre Stevenson56280
Tyquan Thornton12130
Damien Harris1440
Nelson Agholor0100

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Allen19/3125431

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Cook9455.00
Devin Singletary7294.10
Josh Allen9161.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Stefon Diggs7101041
John Brown11421
Gabe Davis310390
Khalil Shakir12280
Isaiah McKenzie23190
Dawson Knox22131
James Cook2260
Devin Singletary1130

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +83.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Patriots.

Half-point at risk

2.13%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.4%

Expected total

44.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.85
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+3.48