Closing spread
BUF -8
Total
44
Model margin
+3.5est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Bills
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.047EPA / play+0.111
- 41.1%Success rate49.0%
- -0.026EPA / dropback+0.203
- -0.082EPA / rush-0.064
- 10.3%Explosive rate9.3%
- +0.93CPOE+0.35
- 35.3%Third-down rate51.1%
- 56.0%Red-zone TD rate61.8%
- 1.54Points / drive2.48
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 39–16 since 1999
Meetings average 42.9 points. BUF are 21-31-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mac Jones | 26/40 | 243 | 3 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 6 | 54 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Damien Harris | 13 | 48 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Mac Jones | 4 | 5 | 1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeVante Parker | 6 | 7 | 79 | 2 |
| Kendrick Bourne | 4 | 5 | 45 | 0 |
| Hunter Henry | 6 | 7 | 42 | 0 |
| Jakobi Meyers | 3 | 7 | 32 | 1 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 5 | 6 | 28 | 0 |
| Tyquan Thornton | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Damien Harris | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 |
| Nelson Agholor | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 19/31 | 254 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Cook | 9 | 45 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Devin Singletary | 7 | 29 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Josh Allen | 9 | 16 | 1.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stefon Diggs | 7 | 10 | 104 | 1 |
| John Brown | 1 | 1 | 42 | 1 |
| Gabe Davis | 3 | 10 | 39 | 0 |
| Khalil Shakir | 1 | 2 | 28 | 0 |
| Isaiah McKenzie | 2 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Dawson Knox | 2 | 2 | 13 | 1 |
| James Cook | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Devin Singletary | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
2.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.4%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.85
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+3.48