Closing spread
BUF -7.5
Total
41
Model margin
-1.7est.
NE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Patriots
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.097EPA / play-0.189
- 48.4%Success rate38.9%
- +0.153EPA / dropback-0.226
- +0.010EPA / rush-0.128
- 8.5%Explosive rate5.5%
- +4.96CPOE-3.39
- 49.7%Third-down rate30.8%
- 68.0%Red-zone TD rate52.2%
- 2.33Points / drive1.00
- 2.4%Turnover rate2.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 39–16 since 1999
Meetings average 42.9 points. NE are 31-21-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 27/41 | 265 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Cook | 13 | 56 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Josh Allen | 7 | 17 | 2.4 | 1 |
| Latavius Murray | 4 | 8 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dalton Kincaid | 8 | 8 | 75 | 0 |
| Stefon Diggs | 6 | 12 | 58 | 1 |
| James Cook | 3 | 3 | 46 | 1 |
| Khalil Shakir | 4 | 4 | 35 | 0 |
| Latavius Murray | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Deonte Harty | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Dawson Knox | 1 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Gabe Davis | 1 | 5 | 6 | 0 |
| Trent Sherfield | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mac Jones | 25/30 | 272 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 9 | 34 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 11 | 31 | 2.8 | 1 |
| DeMario Douglas | 1 | 20 | 20.0 | 0 |
| Mac Jones | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kendrick Bourne | 6 | 7 | 63 | 1 |
| DeMario Douglas | 4 | 6 | 54 | 0 |
| Pharaoh Brown | 2 | 2 | 51 | 0 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 6 | 6 | 51 | 0 |
| Hunter Henry | 2 | 3 | 27 | 0 |
| Jalen Reagor | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| DeVante Parker | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Mike Gesicki | 2 | 2 | 5 | 1 |
| Tyquan Thornton | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
4.64%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
44.5%
Expected total
41.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.40
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.70