Closing spread
BUF -7.5
Total
49.5
Model margin
+0.6est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bills
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.154EPA / play+0.145
- 48.2%Success rate48.8%
- +0.308EPA / dropback+0.230
- -0.089EPA / rush+0.039
- 10.5%Explosive rate11.0%
- +10.94CPOE+3.77
- 43.3%Third-down rate46.0%
- 63.4%Red-zone TD rate70.6%
- 2.47Points / drive2.73
- 1.5%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 39–16 since 1999
Meetings average 42.9 points. BUF are 21-31-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake Maye | 22/30 | 273 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TreVeyon Henderson | 6 | 24 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Antonio Gibson | 6 | 21 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 7 | 14 | 2.0 | 2 |
| Drake Maye | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stefon Diggs | 10 | 12 | 146 | 0 |
| Hunter Henry | 2 | 4 | 46 | 0 |
| Kayshon Boutte | 3 | 3 | 43 | 0 |
| DeMario Douglas | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Antonio Gibson | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| TreVeyon Henderson | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 22/31 | 253 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 9 | 53 | 5.9 | 0 |
| James Cook | 15 | 49 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Ty Johnson | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Khalil Shakir | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Ray Davis | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dalton Kincaid | 6 | 6 | 108 | 0 |
| Khalil Shakir | 6 | 9 | 45 | 0 |
| Josh Palmer | 2 | 2 | 36 | 0 |
| Curtis Samuel | 2 | 2 | 26 | 1 |
| Keon Coleman | 4 | 7 | 23 | 1 |
| Dawson Knox | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| James Cook | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyrell Shavers | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
1.96%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.6%
Expected total
45.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.15
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.55