2025 · Week 5 · Division

Final

Patriots

New England

QB Drake Maye

23·20

Bills

Buffalo

QB Josh Allen

New Era Field · outdoors · a_turf · 66°F · wind 3mph

Closing spread

BUF -7.5

Total

49.5

Model margin

+0.6est.

BUF perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Patriots

Bills

Win probability

  • Bills
  • Patriots

How each play moved the game.

Bills winsPatriots wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Patriotsedge mapBills
  • +0.154EPA / play+0.145
  • 48.2%Success rate48.8%
  • +0.308EPA / dropback+0.230
  • -0.089EPA / rush+0.039
  • 10.5%Explosive rate11.0%
  • +10.94CPOE+3.77
  • 43.3%Third-down rate46.0%
  • 63.4%Red-zone TD rate70.6%
  • 2.47Points / drive2.73
  • 1.5%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 40–16 since 1999

Meetings average 43.1 points. BUF are 21-32-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W4NE @ BUF29–26NE
2025 · W15BUF @ NE35–31BUF
2024 · W18BUF @ NE16–23NE
2024 · W16NE @ BUF21–24BUF
2023 · W17NE @ BUF21–27BUF
2023 · W7BUF @ NE25–29NE
2022 · W18NE @ BUF23–35BUF
2022 · W13BUF @ NE24–10BUF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNE–BUF
NEQ1 15:00416Punt0–0
BUFQ1 12:18746Turnover0–0
NEQ1 8:2117Turnover0–0
BUFQ1 8:11525Punt0–0
NEQ1 6:17830Punt0–0
BUFQ1 2:1722Turnover0–0
NEQ1 1:443-1Field goal3–0
BUFQ1 0:561059Field goal3–3
NEQ2 9:34620Punt3–3
BUFQ2 6:24627Punt3–3
NEQ2 2:221263Field goal6–3
BUFQ3 15:001066Touchdown6–10
NEQ3 9:21669Touchdown13–10
BUFQ3 6:34847Turnover13–10
NEQ3 2:531190Touchdown20–10
BUFQ4 12:10944Touchdown20–17
NEQ4 7:3737Punt20–17
BUFQ4 5:521034Field goal20–20
NEQ4 2:17637Field goal23–20
BUFQ4 0:15113End of half23–20

Box score

Individual performances

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drake Maye22/3027300

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
TreVeyon Henderson6244.00
Antonio Gibson6213.50
Rhamondre Stevenson7142.02
Drake Maye3124.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Stefon Diggs10121460
Hunter Henry24460
Kayshon Boutte33430
DeMario Douglas23170
Rhamondre Stevenson22130
Antonio Gibson1150
TreVeyon Henderson2330

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Allen22/3125321

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Josh Allen9535.90
James Cook15493.30
Ty Johnson2105.00
Khalil Shakir155.00
Ray Davis210.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dalton Kincaid661080
Khalil Shakir69450
Josh Palmer22360
Curtis Samuel22261
Keon Coleman47231
Dawson Knox22150
James Cook0100
Tyrell Shavers0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +7.54.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Patriots.

Half-point at risk

1.96%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.6%

Expected total

45.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.15
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.55