Closing spread
BUF -15
Total
40
Model margin
+7.4est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
1.4%est.
Win probability
- Bills
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.189EPA / play+0.097
- 38.9%Success rate48.4%
- -0.226EPA / dropback+0.153
- -0.128EPA / rush+0.010
- 5.5%Explosive rate8.5%
- -3.39CPOE+4.96
- 30.8%Third-down rate49.7%
- 52.2%Red-zone TD rate68.0%
- 1.00Points / drive2.33
- 2.8%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 39–16 since 1999
Meetings average 42.9 points. BUF are 21-31-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bailey Zappe | 16/26 | 209 | 0 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ezekiel Elliott | 14 | 39 | 2.8 | 1 |
| Bailey Zappe | 5 | 37 | 7.4 | 1 |
| Kevin Harris | 2 | 15 | 7.5 | 0 |
| DeMario Douglas | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Harris | 2 | 2 | 54 | 0 |
| Jalen Reagor | 1 | 3 | 39 | 0 |
| Mike Gesicki | 4 | 6 | 35 | 0 |
| DeMario Douglas | 3 | 5 | 31 | 0 |
| Tyquan Thornton | 3 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| DeVante Parker | 1 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Pharaoh Brown | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 15/30 | 169 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Cook | 16 | 48 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Josh Allen | 11 | 44 | 4.0 | 2 |
| Ty Johnson | 5 | 22 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Khalil Shakir | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Stefon Diggs | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Latavius Murray | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Kyle Allen | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dalton Kincaid | 4 | 7 | 87 | 0 |
| Khalil Shakir | 4 | 4 | 39 | 0 |
| Stefon Diggs | 4 | 7 | 26 | 0 |
| Gabe Davis | 2 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| Latavius Murray | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Trent Sherfield | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| James Cook | 1 | 3 | -4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
1.38%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
68.5%
Expected total
41.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.40
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+2.25
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+7.43