2023 · Week 17 · Division

Final

Patriots

New England

QB Bailey Zappe

21·27

Bills

Buffalo

QB Josh Allen

New Era Field · outdoors · a_turf · 35°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

BUF -15

Total

40

Model margin

+7.4est.

BUF perspective

Push chance

1.4%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Patriots

Bills

Win probability

  • Bills
  • Patriots

How each play moved the game.

Bills winsPatriots wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Patriotsedge mapBills
  • -0.189EPA / play+0.097
  • 38.9%Success rate48.4%
  • -0.226EPA / dropback+0.153
  • -0.128EPA / rush+0.010
  • 5.5%Explosive rate8.5%
  • -3.39CPOE+4.96
  • 30.8%Third-down rate49.7%
  • 52.2%Red-zone TD rate68.0%
  • 1.00Points / drive2.33
  • 2.8%Turnover rate2.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 40–16 since 1999

Meetings average 43.1 points. BUF are 21-32-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W4NE @ BUF29–26NE
2025 · W15BUF @ NE35–31BUF
2025 · W5NE @ BUF23–20NE
2024 · W18BUF @ NE16–23NE
2024 · W16NE @ BUF21–24BUF
2023 · W7BUF @ NE25–29NE
2022 · W18NE @ BUF23–35BUF
2022 · W13BUF @ NE24–10BUF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNE–BUF
NEQ1 15:0000Touchdown7–0
BUFQ1 14:4834Punt7–0
NEQ1 13:0610Turnover7–0
BUFQ1 13:0034Field goal7–3
NEQ1 12:0735Punt7–3
BUFQ1 10:20511Punt7–3
NEQ1 8:4110Turnover7–3
BUFQ1 8:34414Touchdown7–10
NEQ1 6:3725Turnover7–10
BUFQ1 5:51624Field goal7–13
NEQ1 2:163-7Punt7–13
BUFQ1 0:5444Punt7–13
NEQ1 0:04629Opp touchdown7–20
NEQ2 12:36675Touchdown14–20
BUFQ2 9:44942Turnover14–20
NEQ2 5:43860Missed field goal14–20
BUFQ2 1:4938Punt14–20
NEQ2 1:0512End of half14–20
BUFQ3 15:00875Touchdown14–27
NEQ3 10:421141Punt14–27
BUFQ3 3:01630Punt14–27
NEQ4 14:10777Touchdown21–27
BUFQ4 11:01730Punt21–27
NEQ4 6:4138Punt21–27
BUFQ4 5:02937End of half21–27

Box score

Individual performances

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Bailey Zappe16/2620903

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ezekiel Elliott14392.81
Bailey Zappe5377.41
Kevin Harris2157.50
DeMario Douglas3124.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kevin Harris22540
Jalen Reagor13390
Mike Gesicki46350
DeMario Douglas35310
Tyquan Thornton33240
DeVante Parker12150
Ezekiel Elliott1260
Pharaoh Brown1150

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Allen15/3016901

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Cook16483.00
Josh Allen11444.02
Ty Johnson5224.40
Khalil Shakir11010.00
Stefon Diggs155.00
Latavius Murray100.00
Kyle Allen2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dalton Kincaid47870
Khalil Shakir44390
Stefon Diggs47260
Gabe Davis23210
Latavius Murray0100
Trent Sherfield0300
James Cook13-40

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +157.2%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.3%2.6%

Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Patriots.

Half-point at risk

1.38%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

68.5%

Expected total

41.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.40
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+2.25
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+7.43