Closing spread
BUF -2.5
Total
49.5
Model margin
+3.3est.
NE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Patriots
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.145EPA / play+0.154
- 48.8%Success rate48.2%
- +0.230EPA / dropback+0.308
- +0.039EPA / rush-0.089
- 11.0%Explosive rate10.5%
- +3.77CPOE+10.94
- 46.0%Third-down rate43.3%
- 70.6%Red-zone TD rate63.4%
- 2.73Points / drive2.47
- 1.6%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 39–16 since 1999
Meetings average 42.9 points. NE are 31-21-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 19/28 | 193 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Cook | 22 | 107 | 4.9 | 2 |
| Josh Allen | 11 | 48 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Ty Johnson | 4 | 13 | 3.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khalil Shakir | 5 | 5 | 65 | 0 |
| Dawson Knox | 3 | 4 | 37 | 2 |
| Dalton Kincaid | 3 | 4 | 34 | 0 |
| Josh Palmer | 1 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Ty Johnson | 3 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Ray Davis | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Jackson Hawes | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| James Cook | 2 | 3 | 4 | 1 |
| Brandin Cooks | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake Maye | 14/23 | 155 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TreVeyon Henderson | 14 | 148 | 10.6 | 2 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 6 | 50 | 8.3 | 0 |
| Drake Maye | 4 | 43 | 10.8 | 2 |
| DeMario Douglas | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mack Hollins | 4 | 8 | 41 | 0 |
| Kayshon Boutte | 1 | 1 | 30 | 0 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 3 | 3 | 27 | 0 |
| Stefon Diggs | 3 | 4 | 26 | 0 |
| Hunter Henry | 1 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| TreVeyon Henderson | 2 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
1.99%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.0%
Expected total
45.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.15
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.48
- Expected margin+3.34