2025 · Week 15 · Division

Final

Bills

Buffalo

QB Josh Allen

35·31

Patriots

New England

QB Drake Maye

Gillette Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 32°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

BUF -2.5

Total

49.5

Model margin

+3.3est.

NE perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bills

Patriots

Win probability

  • Patriots
  • Bills

How each play moved the game.

Patriots winsBills wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Billsedge mapPatriots
  • +0.145EPA / play+0.154
  • 48.8%Success rate48.2%
  • +0.230EPA / dropback+0.308
  • +0.039EPA / rush-0.089
  • 11.0%Explosive rate10.5%
  • +3.77CPOE+10.94
  • 46.0%Third-down rate43.3%
  • 70.6%Red-zone TD rate63.4%
  • 2.73Points / drive2.47
  • 1.6%Turnover rate1.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 40–16 since 1999

Meetings average 43.1 points. NE are 32-21-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W4NE @ BUF29–26NE
2025 · W5NE @ BUF23–20NE
2024 · W18BUF @ NE16–23NE
2024 · W16NE @ BUF21–24BUF
2023 · W17NE @ BUF21–27BUF
2023 · W7BUF @ NE25–29NE
2022 · W18NE @ BUF23–35BUF
2022 · W13BUF @ NE24–10BUF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBUF–NE
NEQ1 15:00873Touchdown0–7
BUFQ1 10:2135Punt0–7
NEQ1 9:07521Punt0–7
BUFQ1 6:1830Punt0–7
NEQ1 3:43650Touchdown0–14
BUFQ1 0:25829Punt0–14
NEQ2 10:30894Touchdown0–21
BUFQ2 5:53742Touchdown7–21
NEQ2 1:56647Field goal7–24
BUFQ3 15:00644Touchdown14–24
NEQ3 11:293-6Punt14–24
BUFQ3 9:181265Touchdown21–24
NEQ3 3:49838Turnover21–24
BUFQ3 1:3014101Touchdown28–24
NEQ4 10:03165Touchdown28–31
BUFQ4 9:49850Touchdown35–31
NEQ4 6:483-2Punt35–31
BUFQ4 5:0836Punt35–31
NEQ4 2:4345Turnover on downs35–31
BUFQ4 1:47310End of half35–31

Box score

Individual performances

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Allen19/2819330

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Cook221074.92
Josh Allen11484.40
Ty Johnson4133.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Khalil Shakir55650
Dawson Knox34372
Dalton Kincaid34340
Josh Palmer12160
Ty Johnson33150
Ray Davis11130
Jackson Hawes1190
James Cook2341
Brandin Cooks0300

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drake Maye14/2315501

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
TreVeyon Henderson1414810.62
Rhamondre Stevenson6508.30
Drake Maye44310.82
DeMario Douglas155.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mack Hollins48410
Kayshon Boutte11300
Rhamondre Stevenson33270
Stefon Diggs34260
Hunter Henry13180
TreVeyon Henderson23130

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -2.53.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%

Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Bills.

Half-point at risk

1.99%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.0%

Expected total

45.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.15
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.48
  • Expected margin+3.34