Closing spread
BUF -3
Total
36.5
Model margin
+4.4est.
NE perspective
Push chance
6.6%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Patriots
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.186EPA / play-0.081
- 47.8%Success rate42.5%
- +0.298EPA / dropback-0.020
- +0.029EPA / rush-0.187
- 9.5%Explosive rate7.0%
- +0.64CPOE+1.54
- 45.6%Third-down rate35.0%
- 75.1%Red-zone TD rate54.2%
- 2.90Points / drive1.51
- 0.8%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 39–16 since 1999
Meetings average 42.9 points. NE are 31-21-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitchell Trubisky | 15/21 | 101 | 1 | 0 |
| Mike White | 3/11 | 28 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ray Davis | 15 | 64 | 4.3 | 0 |
| James Cook | 10 | 28 | 2.8 | 1 |
| Ty Johnson | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Mitchell Trubisky | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Keon Coleman | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Reggie Gilliam | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Samuel | 7 | 8 | 52 | 0 |
| Keon Coleman | 2 | 10 | 31 | 0 |
| Mack Hollins | 3 | 4 | 25 | 0 |
| Quintin Morris | 3 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Ray Davis | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
| Ty Johnson | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Milton III | 22/29 | 241 | 1 | 0 |
| Drake Maye | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Gibson | 12 | 41 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Terrell Jennings | 8 | 20 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Joe Milton III | 10 | 16 | 1.6 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kayshon Boutte | 7 | 7 | 117 | 1 |
| DeMario Douglas | 3 | 4 | 34 | 0 |
| Austin Hooper | 4 | 6 | 27 | 0 |
| Antonio Gibson | 4 | 6 | 20 | 0 |
| Jaheim Bell | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 |
| Kendrick Bourne | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Javon Baker | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Terrell Jennings | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
6.57%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.9%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.93
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+7.59
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+4.44