2024 · Week 18 · Division

Final

Bills

Buffalo

QB Mitchell Trubisky

16·23

Patriots

New England

QB Joe Milton III

Gillette Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 33°F · wind 14mph

Closing spread

BUF -3

Total

36.5

Model margin

+4.4est.

NE perspective

Push chance

6.6%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bills

Patriots

Win probability

  • Patriots
  • Bills

How each play moved the game.

Patriots winsBills wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Billsedge mapPatriots
  • +0.186EPA / play-0.081
  • 47.8%Success rate42.5%
  • +0.298EPA / dropback-0.020
  • +0.029EPA / rush-0.187
  • 9.5%Explosive rate7.0%
  • +0.64CPOE+1.54
  • 45.6%Third-down rate35.0%
  • 75.1%Red-zone TD rate54.2%
  • 2.90Points / drive1.51
  • 0.8%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 40–16 since 1999

Meetings average 43.1 points. NE are 32-21-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W4NE @ BUF29–26NE
2025 · W15BUF @ NE35–31BUF
2025 · W5NE @ BUF23–20NE
2024 · W16NE @ BUF21–24BUF
2023 · W17NE @ BUF21–27BUF
2023 · W7BUF @ NE25–29NE
2022 · W18NE @ BUF23–35BUF
2022 · W13BUF @ NE24–10BUF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBUF–NE
NEQ1 15:003-7Punt0–0
BUFQ1 13:2549Turnover on downs0–0
NEQ1 11:431355Touchdown0–7
BUFQ1 4:251361Touchdown7–7
NEQ2 12:09575Touchdown7–14
BUFQ2 9:10849Field goal10–14
NEQ2 4:39624Punt10–14
BUFQ2 1:511047Punt10–14
BUFQ3 15:00935Punt10–14
NEQ3 11:03215Turnover10–14
BUFQ3 10:17516Touchdown16–14
NEQ3 7:561464Field goal16–17
BUFQ3 1:00417Punt16–17
NEQ4 14:021070Field goal16–20
BUFQ4 8:53722Turnover on downs16–20
NEQ4 5:1632Punt16–20
BUFQ4 4:1833Punt16–20
NEQ4 3:14514Field goal16–23
BUFQ4 1:5540Turnover on downs16–23
NEQ4 1:2600End of half16–23

Box score

Individual performances

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mitchell Trubisky15/2110110
Mike White3/112800

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ray Davis15644.30
James Cook10282.81
Ty Johnson2136.50
Mitchell Trubisky4123.00
Keon Coleman199.00
Reggie Gilliam144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Curtis Samuel78520
Keon Coleman210310
Mack Hollins34250
Quintin Morris34200
Ray Davis2311
Ty Johnson1200

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Milton III22/2924110
Drake Maye0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Antonio Gibson12413.40
Terrell Jennings8202.50
Joe Milton III10161.61

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kayshon Boutte771171
DeMario Douglas34340
Austin Hooper46270
Antonio Gibson46200
Jaheim Bell11190
Kendrick Bourne22120
Javon Baker11120
Terrell Jennings0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -33.6%6.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%

Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Bills.

Half-point at risk

6.57%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

60.9%

Expected total

44.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.93
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+7.59
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+4.44