2024 · Week 16 · Division

Final

Patriots

New England

QB Drake Maye

21·24

Bills

Buffalo

QB Josh Allen

New Era Field · outdoors · a_turf · 14°F · wind 2mph

Closing spread

BUF -14

Total

48

Model margin

+6.6est.

BUF perspective

Push chance

3.2%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Patriots

Bills

Win probability

  • Bills
  • Patriots

How each play moved the game.

Bills winsPatriots wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Patriotsedge mapBills
  • -0.081EPA / play+0.186
  • 42.5%Success rate47.8%
  • -0.020EPA / dropback+0.298
  • -0.187EPA / rush+0.029
  • 7.0%Explosive rate9.5%
  • +1.54CPOE+0.64
  • 35.0%Third-down rate45.6%
  • 54.2%Red-zone TD rate75.1%
  • 1.51Points / drive2.90
  • 2.1%Turnover rate0.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 40–16 since 1999

Meetings average 43.1 points. BUF are 21-32-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W4NE @ BUF29–26NE
2025 · W15BUF @ NE35–31BUF
2025 · W5NE @ BUF23–20NE
2024 · W18BUF @ NE16–23NE
2023 · W17NE @ BUF21–27BUF
2023 · W7BUF @ NE25–29NE
2022 · W18NE @ BUF23–35BUF
2022 · W13BUF @ NE24–10BUF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNE–BUF
NEQ1 15:00744Touchdown7–0
BUFQ1 12:01611Punt7–0
NEQ1 9:131897Touchdown14–0
BUFQ2 14:16470Touchdown14–7
NEQ2 11:5639Punt14–7
BUFQ2 10:58629Turnover14–7
NEQ2 8:011033Punt14–7
BUFQ2 1:48829Punt14–7
NEQ2 0:13356End of half14–7
BUFQ3 15:00968Touchdown14–14
NEQ3 9:4129Turnover14–14
BUFQ3 9:04510Field goal14–17
NEQ3 6:02854Turnover14–17
BUFQ3 1:521055Punt14–17
NEQ4 11:0022Opp touchdown14–24
NEQ4 10:10520Punt14–24
BUFQ4 8:26629Punt14–24
NEQ4 4:291655Touchdown21–24
BUFQ4 1:13523End of half21–24

Box score

Individual performances

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drake Maye22/3626121

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rhamondre Stevenson12605.01
Drake Maye6305.00
Antonio Gibson10282.80
DeMario Douglas166.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kayshon Boutte57951
Austin Hooper45550
Hunter Henry48391
DeMario Douglas45330
Kendrick Bourne22180
Rhamondre Stevenson11130
Antonio Gibson2280
Javon Baker0100

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Allen16/2915411

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Cook111009.11
Josh Allen6305.00
Ty Johnson6305.00
Ray Davis5122.40

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
James Cook33261
Mack Hollins23250
Dawson Knox22220
Khalil Shakir26220
Ray Davis11170
Keon Coleman12170
Dalton Kincaid47150
Amari Cooper12100
Ty Johnson0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +147.3%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.2%

Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Patriots.

Half-point at risk

3.21%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

66.5%

Expected total

44.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.93
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+6.64