Closing spread
BUF -14
Total
48
Model margin
+6.6est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
3.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bills
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.081EPA / play+0.186
- 42.5%Success rate47.8%
- -0.020EPA / dropback+0.298
- -0.187EPA / rush+0.029
- 7.0%Explosive rate9.5%
- +1.54CPOE+0.64
- 35.0%Third-down rate45.6%
- 54.2%Red-zone TD rate75.1%
- 1.51Points / drive2.90
- 2.1%Turnover rate0.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 39–16 since 1999
Meetings average 42.9 points. BUF are 21-31-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake Maye | 22/36 | 261 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 12 | 60 | 5.0 | 1 |
| Drake Maye | 6 | 30 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Antonio Gibson | 10 | 28 | 2.8 | 0 |
| DeMario Douglas | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kayshon Boutte | 5 | 7 | 95 | 1 |
| Austin Hooper | 4 | 5 | 55 | 0 |
| Hunter Henry | 4 | 8 | 39 | 1 |
| DeMario Douglas | 4 | 5 | 33 | 0 |
| Kendrick Bourne | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Antonio Gibson | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Javon Baker | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 16/29 | 154 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Cook | 11 | 100 | 9.1 | 1 |
| Josh Allen | 6 | 30 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Ty Johnson | 6 | 30 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Ray Davis | 5 | 12 | 2.4 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Cook | 3 | 3 | 26 | 1 |
| Mack Hollins | 2 | 3 | 25 | 0 |
| Dawson Knox | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| Khalil Shakir | 2 | 6 | 22 | 0 |
| Ray Davis | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| Keon Coleman | 1 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Dalton Kincaid | 4 | 7 | 15 | 0 |
| Amari Cooper | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Ty Johnson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
3.21%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
66.5%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.93
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.64