Closing spread
STL -14
Total
47
Model margin
+3.7est.
STL perspective
Push chance
2.8%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Rams
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
STL lead 14–9 since 1999
RAMS have won 3 straight. Meetings average 51.9 points. STL are 15-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Billy Joe Hobert | 23/41 | 254 | 0 | 2 |
| Danny Wuerffel | 2/6 | 19 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Smith | 18 | 54 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Wilmont Perry | 6 | 19 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Eddie Kennison | 1 | 15 | 15.0 | 0 |
| Billy Joe Hobert | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Troy Davis | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Hastings | 9 | 12 | 113 | 0 |
| Cameron Cleeland | 5 | 7 | 62 | 0 |
| Lamar Smith | 4 | 5 | 36 | 0 |
| Eddie Kennison | 5 | 10 | 33 | 0 |
| Keith Poole | 1 | 5 | 18 | 0 |
| Wilmont Perry | 1 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Troy Davis | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Scott Slutzker | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
2.83%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.0%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.35
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-1.18
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.73
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.