1999 · Week 12 · Division
Final / OT
Jack Kent Cooke Stadium · outdoors · grass · 52°F · wind 0mph
Closing spread
WAS -10
Total
42.5
Model margin
+6.4est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
3.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Commanders
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.192EPA / play+0.098
- 33.4%Success rate44.4%
- -0.199EPA / dropback+0.143
- -0.181EPA / rush+0.036
- 6.4%Explosive rate10.8%
- 31.2%Third-down rate36.2%
- 46.7%Red-zone TD rate68.3%
- 0.90Points / drive1.78
- 3.6%Turnover rate2.2%
- -0.098EPA / play allowed-0.001
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 35–21 since 1999
Meetings average 45.6 points. WAS are 26-27-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 16/28 | 172 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 8 | 71 | 8.9 | 0 |
| Duce Staley | 19 | 44 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Eric Bieniemy | 1 | 28 | 28.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duce Staley | 4 | 7 | 39 | 0 |
| Luther Broughton | 3 | 4 | 38 | 2 |
| Torrance Small | 2 | 4 | 35 | 0 |
| Eric Bieniemy | 1 | 1 | 27 | 0 |
| Na Brown | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Dameane Douglas | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Cecil Martin | 3 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Dietrich Jells | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Chad Lewis | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Johnson | 25/36 | 218 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Davis | 24 | 61 | 2.5 | 1 |
| Brian Mitchell | 3 | 24 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Brad Johnson | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Albert Connell | 6 | 9 | 69 | 0 |
| Michael Westbrook | 4 | 10 | 51 | 0 |
| Irving Fryar | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Brian Mitchell | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Mike Sellers | 1 | 1 | 6 | 1 |
| Stephen Alexander | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Stephen Davis | 1 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
3.36%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
66.0%
Expected total
43.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.17
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+1.68
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.42