Closing spread
JAX -10.5
Total
37
Model margin
+2.6est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.063EPA / play+0.048
- 41.6%Success rate42.5%
- -0.073EPA / dropback+0.145
- -0.048EPA / rush-0.086
- 6.4%Explosive rate8.0%
- 37.4%Third-down rate40.4%
- 52.5%Red-zone TD rate46.2%
- 1.27Points / drive1.75
- 2.2%Turnover rate1.5%
- -0.045EPA / play allowed-0.127
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
JAX lead 11–9 since 1999
Meetings average 37.9 points. JAX are 13-6-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Tomczak | 19/39 | 194 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richard Huntley | 2 | 37 | 18.5 | 0 |
| Jerome Bettis | 12 | 23 | 1.9 | 0 |
| Mike Tomczak | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bobby Shaw | 4 | 5 | 52 | 0 |
| Hines Ward | 4 | 6 | 35 | 0 |
| Troy Edwards | 2 | 11 | 29 | 0 |
| Mark Bruener | 3 | 4 | 27 | 0 |
| Kordell Stewart | 3 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| Jerome Bettis | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Mitch Lyons | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Richard Huntley | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Brunell | 25/37 | 308 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Stewart | 30 | 145 | 4.8 | 1 |
| Stacey Mack | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 |
| Mark Brunell | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Smith | 10 | 13 | 124 | 1 |
| Keenan McCardell | 5 | 10 | 113 | 0 |
| Reggie Barlow | 4 | 5 | 31 | 0 |
| Damon Jones | 1 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Chris Howard | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| James Stewart | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
1.43%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.1%
Expected total
45.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.45
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-3.40
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.62