Closing spread
STL -7
Total
49
Model margin
+3.5est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
3.8%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Panthers
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
CAR lead 9–8 since 1999
Meetings average 44.1 points. CAR are 10-6-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Beuerlein | 21/42 | 266 | 3 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Biakabutuka | 11 | 42 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Steve Beuerlein | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Fred Lane | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Michael Bates | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Jeffers | 7 | 9 | 107 | 1 |
| Muhsin Muhammad | 4 | 11 | 46 | 0 |
| Wesley Walls | 4 | 7 | 45 | 1 |
| Donald Hayes | 1 | 3 | 36 | 1 |
| Tim Biakabutuka | 3 | 5 | 17 | 0 |
| Eric Metcalf | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Brian Kinchen | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Fred Lane | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Kris Mangum | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
3.80%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.3%
Expected total
45.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.90
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.46
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.