1999 · Week 13

Final

Commanders

Washington

QB Brad Johnson

17·33

Lions

Detroit

QB Gus Frerotte

Pontiac Silverdome · dome · astroturf

Closing spread

DET -3.5

Total

49.5

Model margin

+0.9est.

DET perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Lions
  • Commanders

How each play moved the game.

Lions winsCommanders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Commandersedge mapLions
  • +0.098EPA / play-0.057
  • 44.4%Success rate38.8%
  • +0.143EPA / dropback+0.024
  • +0.036EPA / rush-0.222
  • 10.8%Explosive rate8.4%
  • 36.2%Third-down rate35.5%
  • 68.3%Red-zone TD rate61.8%
  • 1.78Points / drive1.19
  • 2.2%Turnover rate2.0%
  • -0.001EPA / play allowed-0.055

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DET lead 9–6 since 1999

Meetings average 46.5 points. DET are 9-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W10DET @ WAS44–22DET
2024 · playoffsWAS @ DET45–31WAS
2022 · W2WAS @ DET27–36DET
2020 · W10WAS @ DET27–30DET
2019 · W12DET @ WAS16–19WAS
2016 · W7WAS @ DET17–20DET
2013 · W3DET @ WAS27–20DET
2010 · W8WAS @ DET25–37DET

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultWAS–DET
WASQ1 15:001582Field goal3–0
DETQ1 6:22311Punt3–0
WASQ1 4:4420Turnover3–0
DETQ1 4:296-3Punt3–0
WASQ1 1:581030Punt3–0
DETQ2 11:44851Field goal9–3
WASQ2 6:0200Touchdown10–3
DETQ2 5:46467Touchdown10–10
WASQ2 3:2332Opp touchdown10–17
DETQ2 1:3400Opp touchdown10–17
WASQ2 1:34411Punt10–17
DETQ2 0:42632Field goal10–20
WASQ2 0:0500End of half10–20
DETQ3 15:0039Punt10–20
WASQ3 13:09350Touchdown17–20
DETQ3 12:21742Punt17–20
WASQ3 8:3255Punt17–20
DETQ3 7:1537Missed field goal17–20
WASQ3 5:54734Punt17–20
DETQ3 2:00471Field goal17–23
WASQ4 14:56619Punt17–23
DETQ4 11:343-2Punt17–23
WASQ4 9:56115Turnover17–23
DETQ4 9:4838Field goal17–26
WASQ4 8:231-9Opp touchdown17–33
DETQ4 8:0900Opp touchdown17–33
WASQ4 8:09845Turnover17–33
DETQ4 4:433-1Punt17–33
WASQ4 2:561050End of half17–33

Box score

Individual performances

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brad Johnson26/4324912

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Brian Mitchell66010.00
Stephen Davis12514.30
Michael Westbrook144.00
Brad Johnson1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Michael Westbrook591081
Brian Mitchell44410
Albert Connell38350
Stephen Davis5680
Mike Sellers1280
James Thrash1120

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Gus Frerotte21/3228010

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Greg Hill11161.50
Germane Crowell144.00
Gus Frerotte111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Germane Crowell581220
Herman Moore47471
Johnnie Morton56440
David Sloan34440
Brock Olivo24100
Greg Hill1180

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.54.3%2.8%7.2%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Commanders.

Half-point at risk

2.49%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.4%

Expected total

44.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.94
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.24
  • Expected margin+0.86