1999 · Week 13
Final
Pontiac Silverdome · dome · astroturf
Closing spread
DET -3.5
Total
49.5
Model margin
+0.9est.
DET perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Lions
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.098EPA / play-0.057
- 44.4%Success rate38.8%
- +0.143EPA / dropback+0.024
- +0.036EPA / rush-0.222
- 10.8%Explosive rate8.4%
- 36.2%Third-down rate35.5%
- 68.3%Red-zone TD rate61.8%
- 1.78Points / drive1.19
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.0%
- -0.001EPA / play allowed-0.055
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DET lead 9–6 since 1999
Meetings average 46.5 points. DET are 9-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Johnson | 26/43 | 249 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Mitchell | 6 | 60 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Stephen Davis | 12 | 51 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Michael Westbrook | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Brad Johnson | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Westbrook | 5 | 9 | 108 | 1 |
| Brian Mitchell | 4 | 4 | 41 | 0 |
| Albert Connell | 3 | 8 | 35 | 0 |
| Stephen Davis | 5 | 6 | 8 | 0 |
| Mike Sellers | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| James Thrash | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gus Frerotte | 21/32 | 280 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greg Hill | 11 | 16 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Germane Crowell | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Gus Frerotte | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Germane Crowell | 5 | 8 | 122 | 0 |
| Herman Moore | 4 | 7 | 47 | 1 |
| Johnnie Morton | 5 | 6 | 44 | 0 |
| David Sloan | 3 | 4 | 44 | 0 |
| Brock Olivo | 2 | 4 | 10 | 0 |
| Greg Hill | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
2.49%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.4%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.94
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+0.86