NFL Intelligence

1999 · Week 14 · Division

Final

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Jake Plummer

3·28

Commanders

Washington

QB Brad Johnson

Jack Kent Cooke Stadium · outdoors · grass · 53°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

WAS -5.5

Total

46.5

Model margin

+6.7est.

WAS perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

Commanders
Cardinals

How each play moved the game.

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cardinalsedge mapCommanders

-0.176EPA / play+0.098
35.9%Success rate44.4%
-0.148EPA / dropback+0.143
-0.226EPA / rush+0.036
5.9%Explosive rate10.8%
33.3%Third-down rate36.2%
53.1%Red-zone TD rate68.3%
0.87Points / drive1.78
3.8%Turnover rate2.2%
-0.001EPA / play allowed-0.001

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

WAS lead 14–4 since 1999

WAS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 38.9 points. WAS are 10-8 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
Season	Matchup	Score	Winner
2024 · W4	WAS @ ARI	42–14	WAS
2023 · W1	ARI @ WAS	16–20	WAS
2020 · W2	WAS @ ARI	15–30	ARI
2018 · W1	WAS @ ARI	24–6	WAS
2017 · W15	ARI @ WAS	15–20	WAS
2016 · W13	WAS @ ARI	23–31	ARI
2014 · W6	WAS @ ARI	20–30	ARI
2011 · W2	ARI @ WAS	21–22	WAS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
Ball	Start	Plays	Yards	Result	ARI–WAS
ARI	Q1 15:00	3	2	Punt	0–0
WAS	Q1 13:22	5	61	Touchdown	0–7
ARI	Q1 10:52	3	2	Punt	0–7
WAS	Q1 9:15	3	4	Punt	0–7
ARI	Q1 7:42	8	67	Field goal	3–7
WAS	Q1 3:12	11	84	Touchdown	3–14
ARI	Q2 12:53	8	3	Turnover	3–14
WAS	Q2 8:28	3	-10	Punt	3–14
ARI	Q2 6:56	4	7	Turnover on downs	3–14
WAS	Q2 5:31	4	6	Punt	3–14
ARI	Q2 3:32	5	35	Turnover	3–14
WAS	Q2 1:53	11	62	Touchdown	3–21
ARI	Q2 0:11	1	21	End of half	3–21
WAS	Q3 15:00	7	21	Turnover	3–21
ARI	Q3 11:21	4	12	Punt	3–21
WAS	Q3 9:16	10	49	Punt	3–21
ARI	Q3 3:53	3	4	Punt	3–21
WAS	Q3 2:54	19	88	Turnover	3–21
ARI	Q4 7:09	3	-9	Punt	3–21
WAS	Q4 6:19	3	8	Punt	3–21
ARI	Q4 4:44	2	0	Turnover	3–21
WAS	Q4 4:27	5	35	Touchdown	3–28
ARI	Q4 2:39	8	29	Turnover	3–28
WAS	Q4 1:01	0	0	End of half	3–28

Box score

Individual performances

Cardinals

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT
Jake Plummer	15/32	147	0	3

Rushing

Player	Car	Yds	Avg
Adrian Murrell	8	41	5.1
Michael Pittman	3	8	2.7
Jake Plummer	2	6	3.0
David Boston	1	-2	-2.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds
Adrian Murrell	4	6	44
David Boston	1	4	43
Rob Moore	4	6	24
Michael Pittman	2	3	8
Terry Hardy	1	2	7
Johnny McWilliams	0	1	0
Frank Sanders	0	4	0

Commanders

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT
Brad Johnson	17/31	191	2	2

Rushing

Player	Car	Yds	Avg	TD
Stephen Davis	37	189	5.1	1
Brian Mitchell	3	19	6.3	0
Skip Hicks	2	10	5.0	1
Brad Johnson	2	-2	-1.0	0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD
Albert Connell	3	5	54	0
Michael Westbrook	4	8	52	1
Irving Fryar	3	5	19	1
Stephen Alexander	1	1	14	0
Brian Mitchell	2	3	14	0

Where this game is likely to land

Model
Smooth (normal)
Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Cardinals.

Half-point at risk

3.20%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

66.6%

Expected total

44.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.12
Home-field advantage+2.56
Quarterback adjustment0.00
Rest differential0.00
Expected margin+6.69