1999 · Week 14 · Division
Final
Jack Kent Cooke Stadium · outdoors · grass · 53°F · wind 5mph
Closing spread
WAS -5.5
Total
46.5
Model margin
+6.7est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Commanders
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.176EPA / play+0.098
- 35.9%Success rate44.4%
- -0.148EPA / dropback+0.143
- -0.226EPA / rush+0.036
- 5.9%Explosive rate10.8%
- 33.3%Third-down rate36.2%
- 53.1%Red-zone TD rate68.3%
- 0.87Points / drive1.78
- 3.8%Turnover rate2.2%
- -0.001EPA / play allowed-0.001
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
WAS lead 14–4 since 1999
WAS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 38.9 points. WAS are 10-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Plummer | 15/32 | 147 | 0 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Murrell | 8 | 41 | 5.1 | 0 |
| Michael Pittman | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Jake Plummer | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| David Boston | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Murrell | 4 | 6 | 44 | 0 |
| David Boston | 1 | 4 | 43 | 0 |
| Rob Moore | 4 | 6 | 24 | 0 |
| Michael Pittman | 2 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Terry Hardy | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Johnny McWilliams | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Frank Sanders | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Johnson | 17/31 | 191 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Davis | 37 | 189 | 5.1 | 1 |
| Brian Mitchell | 3 | 19 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Skip Hicks | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 1 |
| Brad Johnson | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Albert Connell | 3 | 5 | 54 | 0 |
| Michael Westbrook | 4 | 8 | 52 | 1 |
| Irving Fryar | 3 | 5 | 19 | 1 |
| Stephen Alexander | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Brian Mitchell | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
3.20%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
66.6%
Expected total
44.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.12
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.69