Closing spread
JAX -9
Total
37.5
Model margin
+4.5est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
1.3%est.
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.035EPA / play+0.048
- 40.6%Success rate42.5%
- +0.016EPA / dropback+0.145
- -0.111EPA / rush-0.086
- 7.5%Explosive rate8.0%
- 36.1%Third-down rate40.4%
- 48.1%Red-zone TD rate46.2%
- 1.38Points / drive1.75
- 2.4%Turnover rate1.5%
- -0.063EPA / play allowed-0.127
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
JAX lead 7–5 since 1999
Meetings average 39.3 points. JAX are 7-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Griese | 21/33 | 275 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olandis Gary | 20 | 67 | 3.4 | 1 |
| Brian Griese | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Derek Loville | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Howard Griffith | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rod Smith | 6 | 10 | 92 | 1 |
| Byron Chamberlain | 3 | 4 | 75 | 1 |
| Ed McCaffrey | 6 | 8 | 61 | 0 |
| Howard Griffith | 2 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Olandis Gary | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Derek Loville | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Brunell | 11/25 | 115 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Stewart | 18 | 79 | 4.4 | 2 |
| Fred Taylor | 9 | 74 | 8.2 | 1 |
| Mark Brunell | 5 | 8 | 1.6 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Smith | 5 | 7 | 55 | 0 |
| Damon Jones | 1 | 5 | 21 | 0 |
| Reggie Barlow | 2 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| Keenan McCardell | 2 | 5 | 13 | 0 |
| Chris Howard | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Fred Taylor | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
1.27%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.1%
Expected total
44.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.70
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+4.50