1999 · Week 14

Final

Broncos

Denver

QB Brian Griese

24·27

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Mark Brunell

Alltel Stadium · outdoors · grass · 68°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

JAX -9

Total

37.5

Model margin

+4.5est.

JAX perspective

Push chance

1.3%est.

Win probability

  • Jaguars
  • Broncos

How each play moved the game.

Jaguars winsBroncos wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Broncosedge mapJaguars
  • -0.035EPA / play+0.048
  • 40.6%Success rate42.5%
  • +0.016EPA / dropback+0.145
  • -0.111EPA / rush-0.086
  • 7.5%Explosive rate8.0%
  • 36.1%Third-down rate40.4%
  • 48.1%Red-zone TD rate46.2%
  • 1.38Points / drive1.75
  • 2.4%Turnover rate1.5%
  • -0.063EPA / play allowed-0.127

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

JAX lead 7–6 since 1999

Meetings average 38.8 points. JAX are 7-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2JAX @ DEN13–20DEN
2025 · W16JAX @ DEN34–20JAX
2022 · W8DEN @ JAX21–17DEN
2021 · W2DEN @ JAX23–13DEN
2019 · W4JAX @ DEN26–24JAX
2016 · W13DEN @ JAX20–10DEN
2013 · W6JAX @ DEN19–35DEN
2010 · W1DEN @ JAX17–24JAX

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDEN–JAX
DENQ1 15:001185Touchdown7–0
JAXQ1 8:01512Punt7–0
DENQ1 4:211177Touchdown14–0
JAXQ2 13:401672Touchdown14–7
DENQ2 6:153-7Punt14–7
JAXQ2 5:02832Field goal14–10
DENQ2 2:4427Turnover14–10
JAXQ2 1:53613Touchdown14–17
DENQ2 0:29220Turnover14–17
JAXQ2 0:0700End of half14–17
JAXQ3 15:0034Punt14–17
DENQ3 13:15937Punt14–17
JAXQ3 8:4730Punt14–17
DENQ3 7:25932Field goal17–17
JAXQ3 2:4438Punt17–17
DENQ3 1:1147Punt17–17
JAXQ4 13:3930Punt17–17
DENQ4 12:4846Punt17–17
JAXQ4 10:5234Punt17–17
DENQ4 8:5731Punt17–17
JAXQ4 8:0438Punt17–17
DENQ4 6:0438Punt17–17
JAXQ4 3:57370Touchdown17–24
DENQ4 2:35685Touchdown24–24
JAXQ4 1:43543Field goal24–27

Box score

Individual performances

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brian Griese21/3327522

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Olandis Gary20673.41
Brian Griese3134.30
Derek Loville393.00
Howard Griffith111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Rod Smith610921
Byron Chamberlain34751
Ed McCaffrey68610
Howard Griffith24200
Olandis Gary1150
Derek Loville0100

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mark Brunell11/2511500

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Stewart18794.42
Fred Taylor9748.21
Mark Brunell581.60

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jimmy Smith57550
Damon Jones15210
Reggie Barlow24190
Keenan McCardell25130
Chris Howard0200
Fred Taylor0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +96.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Broncos.

Half-point at risk

1.27%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

61.1%

Expected total

44.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.70
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.24
  • Expected margin+4.50