Closing spread
DAL -9
Total
36.5
Model margin
+5.8est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
1.3%est.
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.192EPA / play-0.013
- 33.4%Success rate39.6%
- -0.199EPA / dropback+0.043
- -0.181EPA / rush-0.079
- 6.4%Explosive rate9.3%
- 31.2%Third-down rate34.8%
- 46.7%Red-zone TD rate51.1%
- 0.90Points / drive1.25
- 3.6%Turnover rate2.2%
- -0.098EPA / play allowed-0.080
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 29–26 since 1999
Meetings average 44.8 points. DAL are 27-27-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doug Pederson | 8/12 | 108 | 1 | 0 |
| Donovan McNabb | 7/17 | 49 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duce Staley | 18 | 78 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Donovan McNabb | 3 | 24 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Edwin Watson | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Doug Pederson | 2 | -13 | -6.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torrance Small | 4 | 5 | 54 | 0 |
| Na Brown | 3 | 7 | 37 | 1 |
| Dietrich Jells | 2 | 2 | 29 | 0 |
| Chad Lewis | 1 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| Duce Staley | 3 | 5 | 11 | 0 |
| Luther Broughton | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Cecil Martin | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Dameane Douglas | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Troy Aikman | 22/40 | 242 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Warren | 25 | 92 | 3.7 | 1 |
| Raghib Ismail | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Troy Aikman | 4 | 6 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Emmitt Smith | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raghib Ismail | 4 | 10 | 52 | 0 |
| Chris Warren | 4 | 5 | 46 | 0 |
| David LaFleur | 4 | 6 | 44 | 1 |
| Jason Tucker | 3 | 6 | 37 | 0 |
| Eric Bjornson | 2 | 4 | 25 | 0 |
| Chris Brazzell | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
1.31%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
64.4%
Expected total
42.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.56
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+1.68
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.81