1999 · Week 14 · Division

Final

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Donovan McNabb

10·20

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Troy Aikman

Texas Stadium · outdoors · astroturf · 52°F · wind 15mph

Closing spread

DAL -9

Total

36.5

Model margin

+5.8est.

DAL perspective

Push chance

1.3%est.

Win probability

  • Cowboys
  • Eagles

How each play moved the game.

Cowboys winsEagles wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Eaglesedge mapCowboys
  • -0.192EPA / play-0.013
  • 33.4%Success rate39.6%
  • -0.199EPA / dropback+0.043
  • -0.181EPA / rush-0.079
  • 6.4%Explosive rate9.3%
  • 31.2%Third-down rate34.8%
  • 46.7%Red-zone TD rate51.1%
  • 0.90Points / drive1.25
  • 3.6%Turnover rate2.2%
  • -0.098EPA / play allowed-0.080

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 29–27 since 1999

DAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45 points. DAL are 28-27-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7DAL @ PHI38–21DAL
2025 · W12PHI @ DAL21–24DAL
2025 · W1DAL @ PHI20–24PHI
2024 · W17DAL @ PHI7–41PHI
2024 · W10PHI @ DAL34–6PHI
2023 · W14PHI @ DAL13–33DAL
2023 · W9DAL @ PHI23–28PHI
2022 · W16PHI @ DAL34–40DAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPHI–DAL
DALQ1 15:0067Missed field goal0–0
PHIQ1 12:34834Field goal3–0
DALQ1 8:59860Touchdown3–7
PHIQ1 4:49524Punt3–7
DALQ1 1:433-17Punt3–7
PHIQ1 0:3310Turnover3–7
DALQ1 0:22627Punt3–7
PHIQ2 12:1335Punt3–7
DALQ2 10:23726Field goal3–10
PHIQ2 6:50416Punt3–10
DALQ2 4:2337Punt3–10
PHIQ2 3:1339Punt3–10
DALQ2 2:211154Field goal3–13
PHIQ3 15:0056Punt3–13
DALQ3 12:4236Punt3–13
PHIQ3 11:07314Punt3–13
DALQ3 9:44767Touchdown3–20
PHIQ3 6:1045Punt3–20
DALQ3 4:52622Punt3–20
PHIQ3 1:22212Turnover3–20
DALQ3 0:4537Missed field goal3–20
PHIQ4 14:511037Turnover3–20
DALQ4 9:37423Turnover3–20
PHIQ4 8:26662Touchdown10–20
DALQ4 6:41527Punt10–20
PHIQ4 4:14514Punt10–20
DALQ4 2:55424End of half10–20

Box score

Individual performances

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Doug Pederson8/1210810
Donovan McNabb7/174901

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Duce Staley18784.30
Donovan McNabb3248.00
Edwin Watson166.00
Doug Pederson2-13-6.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Torrance Small45540
Na Brown37371
Dietrich Jells22290
Chad Lewis14190
Duce Staley35110
Luther Broughton1240
Cecil Martin1130
Dameane Douglas0100

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Troy Aikman22/4024210

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Warren25923.71
Raghib Ismail11212.00
Troy Aikman461.50
Emmitt Smith122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Raghib Ismail410520
Chris Warren45460
David LaFleur46441
Jason Tucker36370
Eric Bjornson24250
Chris Brazzell12120

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +96.2%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Eagles.

Half-point at risk

1.31%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

64.4%

Expected total

42.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.56
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment+1.68
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.81