Closing spread
STL -10.5
Total
49
Model margin
+0.2est.
NO perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Saints
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
STL lead 14–9 since 1999
RAMS have won 3 straight. Meetings average 51.9 points. NO are 8-15 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Billy Joe Tolliver | 12/27 | 188 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wilmont Perry | 14 | 54 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Billy Joe Tolliver | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Andre Hastings | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Troy Davis | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Dino Philyaw | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keith Poole | 3 | 8 | 83 | 0 |
| Andre Hastings | 2 | 2 | 45 | 0 |
| Troy Davis | 1 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Eddie Kennison | 2 | 7 | 19 | 0 |
| Lamar Smith | 2 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
| Wilmont Perry | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Cameron Cleeland | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
2.67%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.7%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.35
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.22
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.