Closing spread
STL -10.5
Total
49
Model margin
+0.2est.
NO perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Saints
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
STL lead 14–9 since 1999
RAMS have won 3 straight. Meetings average 51.9 points. NO are 8-15 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | STL–NO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Q1 15:00 | 7 | 62 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| LA | Q1 10:41 | 10 | 54 | Touchdown | 7–3 |
| NO | Q1 5:39 | 8 | 64 | Field goal | 7–6 |
| LA | Q1 1:29 | 6 | 28 | Turnover | 7–6 |
| NO | Q2 12:55 | 7 | 20 | Touchdown | 7–14 |
| LA | Q2 9:09 | 5 | 33 | Field goal | 10–14 |
| NO | Q2 7:24 | 2 | 4 | Turnover | 10–14 |
| LA | Q2 6:23 | 6 | 59 | Touchdown | 17–14 |
| NO | Q2 3:28 | 4 | 11 | Turnover | 17–14 |
| LA | Q2 1:57 | 5 | 47 | Touchdown | 24–14 |
| NO | Q2 0:51 | 5 | 15 | Punt | 24–14 |
| LA | Q2 0:03 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 24–14 |
| LA | Q3 15:00 | 9 | 72 | Turnover | 24–14 |
| NO | Q3 10:00 | 4 | -6 | Punt | 24–14 |
| LA | Q3 8:22 | 6 | 53 | Field goal | 27–14 |
| NO | Q3 5:40 | 4 | 10 | Punt | 27–14 |
| LA | Q3 3:34 | 4 | 35 | Missed field goal | 27–14 |
| NO | Q3 1:13 | 5 | 21 | Turnover on downs | 27–14 |
| LA | Q4 14:41 | 4 | 40 | Missed field goal | 27–14 |
| NO | Q4 11:21 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 27–14 |
| LA | Q4 9:51 | 11 | 74 | Field goal | 30–14 |
| NO | Q4 2:29 | 6 | 4 | Turnover | 30–14 |
| LA | Q4 1:14 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 30–14 |
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Billy Joe Tolliver | 12/27 | 188 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wilmont Perry | 14 | 54 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Billy Joe Tolliver | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Andre Hastings | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Troy Davis | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Dino Philyaw | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keith Poole | 3 | 8 | 83 | 0 |
| Andre Hastings | 2 | 2 | 45 | 0 |
| Troy Davis | 1 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Eddie Kennison | 2 | 7 | 19 | 0 |
| Lamar Smith | 2 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
| Wilmont Perry | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Cameron Cleeland | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
2.67%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.7%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.35
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.22
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.