Closing spread
JAX -14.5
Total
39
Model margin
-1.2est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Browns
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.048EPA / play-0.110
- 42.5%Success rate35.3%
- +0.145EPA / dropback-0.079
- -0.086EPA / rush-0.177
- 8.0%Explosive rate6.6%
- 40.4%Third-down rate29.7%
- 46.2%Red-zone TD rate74.3%
- 1.75Points / drive1.12
- 1.5%Turnover rate2.6%
- -0.127EPA / play allowed+0.100
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
JAX lead 11–8 since 1999
Meetings average 38.8 points. CLE are 9-10 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Brunell | 21/33 | 267 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Taylor | 26 | 136 | 5.2 | 1 |
| Chris Howard | 4 | 29 | 7.3 | 0 |
| Mark Brunell | 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Smith | 8 | 12 | 134 | 0 |
| Keenan McCardell | 8 | 12 | 96 | 0 |
| Damon Jones | 2 | 4 | 16 | 1 |
| Fred Taylor | 2 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Alvis Whitted | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ty Detmer | 13/24 | 153 | 1 | 0 |
| Tim Couch | 10/16 | 86 | 0 | 0 |
| Terry Kirby | 1/1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abdul-Karim al-Jabbar | 13 | 36 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Ty Detmer | 2 | 22 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Terry Kirby | 4 | 14 | 3.5 | 1 |
| Tim Couch | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darrin Chiaverini | 10 | 11 | 108 | 1 |
| Kevin Johnson | 4 | 10 | 54 | 0 |
| Irv Smith | 4 | 8 | 36 | 0 |
| Zola Davis | 1 | 3 | 25 | 0 |
| Abdul-Karim al-Jabbar | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Terry Kirby | 2 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
2.44%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
45.9%
Expected total
46.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.83
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin-1.19