1999 · Week 15 · Division

Final

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Mark Brunell

24·14

Browns

Cleveland

QB Tim Couch

Cleveland Browns Stadium · outdoors · grass · 39°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

JAX -14.5

Total

39

Model margin

-1.2est.

CLE perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Browns
  • Jaguars

How each play moved the game.

Browns winsJaguars wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jaguarsedge mapBrowns
  • +0.048EPA / play-0.110
  • 42.5%Success rate35.3%
  • +0.145EPA / dropback-0.079
  • -0.086EPA / rush-0.177
  • 8.0%Explosive rate6.6%
  • 40.4%Third-down rate29.7%
  • 46.2%Red-zone TD rate74.3%
  • 1.75Points / drive1.12
  • 1.5%Turnover rate2.6%
  • -0.127EPA / play allowed+0.100

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

JAX lead 11–8 since 1999

Meetings average 38.8 points. CLE are 9-10 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1CLE @ JAX10–34JAX
2024 · W2CLE @ JAX18–13CLE
2023 · W14JAX @ CLE27–31CLE
2020 · W12CLE @ JAX27–25CLE
2017 · W11JAX @ CLE19–7JAX
2014 · W7CLE @ JAX6–24JAX
2013 · W13JAX @ CLE32–28JAX
2011 · W11JAX @ CLE10–14CLE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultJAX–CLE
CLEQ1 15:0036Punt0–0
JAXQ1 13:32321Turnover0–0
CLEQ1 12:03622Punt0–0
JAXQ1 8:4438Punt0–0
CLEQ1 6:27721Punt0–0
JAXQ1 2:51638Turnover0–0
CLEQ1 0:303-1Turnover0–0
JAXQ2 14:4836Touchdown7–0
CLEQ2 13:2932Punt7–0
JAXQ2 12:12872Touchdown14–0
CLEQ2 8:131242Touchdown14–7
JAXQ2 2:0937Punt14–7
CLEQ2 1:1730Punt14–7
JAXQ2 0:52631Missed field goal14–7
JAXQ3 15:001050Field goal17–7
CLEQ3 9:3638Punt17–7
JAXQ3 8:25948Missed field goal17–7
CLEQ3 3:49756Touchdown17–14
JAXQ3 1:20869Turnover on downs17–14
CLEQ4 12:2338Punt23–14
JAXQ4 10:18141Touchdown24–14
CLEQ4 10:10927Punt24–14
JAXQ4 6:15851Punt24–14
CLEQ4 1:451078End of half24–14

Box score

Individual performances

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mark Brunell21/3326711

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Fred Taylor261365.21
Chris Howard4297.30
Mark Brunell3165.31

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jimmy Smith8121340
Keenan McCardell812960
Damon Jones24161
Fred Taylor23130
Alvis Whitted0100

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ty Detmer13/2415310
Tim Couch10/168600
Terry Kirby1/1200

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Abdul-Karim al-Jabbar13362.80
Ty Detmer22211.00
Terry Kirby4143.51
Tim Couch100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Darrin Chiaverini10111081
Kevin Johnson410540
Irv Smith48360
Zola Davis13250
Abdul-Karim al-Jabbar1140
Terry Kirby2340

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -14.52.9%4.6%3.0%7.5%

Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Jaguars.

Half-point at risk

2.44%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

45.9%

Expected total

46.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.83
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin-1.19