Closing spread
STL -10.5
Total
46.5
Model margin
+3.5est.
STL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Rams
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
All square 7–7 since 1999
RAMS have won 4 straight. Meetings average 47.6 points. STL are 4-10 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerry Collins | 21/37 | 273 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Montgomery | 12 | 41 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Tiki Barber | 5 | 33 | 6.6 | 0 |
| Kerry Collins | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Ike Hilliard | 1 | -6 | -6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amani Toomer | 9 | 10 | 162 | 0 |
| Ike Hilliard | 5 | 12 | 51 | 1 |
| Tiki Barber | 3 | 4 | 43 | 0 |
| Pete Mitchell | 2 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| Greg Comella | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| Brian Alford | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Howard Cross | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Joe Jurevicius | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
1.48%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.5%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.95
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.51
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.