Closing spread
BUF -3
Total
37.5
Model margin
-0.8est.
NE perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Patriots
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.010EPA / play-0.107
- 40.3%Success rate37.4%
- +0.116EPA / dropback-0.062
- -0.195EPA / rush-0.179
- 7.9%Explosive rate7.8%
- 41.4%Third-down rate35.1%
- 56.2%Red-zone TD rate45.4%
- 1.59Points / drive1.19
- 2.5%Turnover rate3.1%
- -0.138EPA / play allowed-0.083
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 40–16 since 1999
Meetings average 43.1 points. NE are 32-21-3 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | BUF–NE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NE | Q1 15:00 | 10 | 43 | Missed field goal | 0–0 |
| BUF | Q1 9:04 | 9 | 54 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| NE | Q1 4:00 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 3–0 |
| BUF | Q1 3:43 | 1 | -1 | Turnover | 3–0 |
| NE | Q1 3:33 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 3–0 |
| BUF | Q1 2:04 | 10 | 18 | Turnover on downs | 3–0 |
| NE | Q2 13:23 | 3 | -5 | Punt | 3–0 |
| BUF | Q2 12:01 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 3–0 |
| NE | Q2 10:22 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 3–0 |
| BUF | Q2 8:55 | 6 | 23 | Punt | 3–0 |
| NE | Q2 4:44 | 10 | 44 | Field goal | 3–3 |
| BUF | Q3 15:00 | 10 | 30 | Punt | 3–3 |
| NE | Q3 9:45 | 6 | 18 | Punt | 3–3 |
| BUF | Q3 6:18 | 9 | 42 | Turnover on downs | 3–3 |
| NE | Q3 1:20 | 4 | 11 | Punt | 3–3 |
| BUF | Q4 14:50 | 5 | 31 | Turnover | 3–9 |
| NE | Q4 12:19 | 1 | 14 | Touchdown | 3–10 |
| BUF | Q4 12:15 | 4 | 19 | Punt | 3–10 |
| NE | Q4 10:35 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 3–10 |
| BUF | Q4 8:47 | 9 | 59 | Touchdown | 10–10 |
| NE | Q4 4:23 | 3 | 13 | Punt | 10–10 |
| BUF | Q4 2:45 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 10–10 |
| NE | Q4 1:19 | 4 | 27 | Missed field goal | 10–10 |
| BUF | Q4 0:02 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 10–10 |
| NE | OT | 7 | 37 | Missed field goal | 10–10 |
| BUF | OT | 4 | 45 | Turnover | 10–10 |
| NE | OT | 4 | 13 | Punt | 10–10 |
| BUF | OT | 9 | 52 | Field goal | 13–10 |
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doug Flutie | 22/35 | 212 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thurman Thomas | 15 | 84 | 5.6 | 0 |
| Doug Flutie | 6 | 44 | 7.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peerless Price | 5 | 8 | 62 | 0 |
| Eric Moulds | 4 | 6 | 53 | 0 |
| Jay Riemersma | 6 | 9 | 39 | 0 |
| Kevin R. Williams | 2 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Bobby Collins | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Andre Reed | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Thurman Thomas | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Bledsoe | 10/20 | 101 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terry Allen | 27 | 126 | 4.7 | 1 |
| Drew Bledsoe | 3 | 26 | 8.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vincent Brisby | 4 | 6 | 45 | 0 |
| Ben Coates | 1 | 1 | 20 | 0 |
| Lamont Warren | 2 | 5 | 8 | 0 |
| Terry Allen | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Shawn Jefferson | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Troy Brown | 1 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
7.43%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.0%
Expected total
41.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.34
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.77