Closing spread
STL -10
Total
46.5
Model margin
+4.9est.
STL perspective
Push chance
3.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Rams
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
STL lead 8–7 since 1999
Meetings average 40 points. STL are 6-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shane Matthews | 23/39 | 266 | 2 | 1 |
| Cade McNown | 9/16 | 125 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Allen | 6 | 30 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Curtis Enis | 7 | 21 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Cade McNown | 3 | 18 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Shane Matthews | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bobby Engram | 13 | 17 | 143 | 2 |
| Marcus Robinson | 6 | 12 | 93 | 0 |
| James Allen | 5 | 5 | 63 | 0 |
| John Allred | 2 | 2 | 34 | 0 |
| Ryan Wetnight | 4 | 4 | 26 | 0 |
| Alonzo Mayes | 1 | 1 | 24 | 0 |
| Marty Booker | 1 | 6 | 8 | 0 |
| D'Wayne Bates | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Edgar Bennett | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Curtis Enis | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Glyn Milburn | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
3.25%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.2%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.57
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+0.80
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.94
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.