Closing spread
STL -10
Total
46.5
Model margin
+4.9est.
STL perspective
Push chance
3.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Rams
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
STL lead 8–7 since 1999
Meetings average 40 points. STL are 6-9 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | CHI–STL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | Q1 15:00 | 5 | 10 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LA | Q1 12:17 | 9 | 49 | Missed field goal | 0–0 |
| CHI | Q1 7:45 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LA | Q1 6:10 | 12 | 79 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| CHI | Q2 14:53 | 4 | 52 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| CHI | Q2 13:16 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LA | Q2 11:46 | 5 | 82 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| CHI | Q2 8:36 | 5 | 46 | Turnover | 0–7 |
| LA | Q2 6:18 | 7 | 83 | Touchdown | 0–14 |
| CHI | Q2 2:11 | 4 | 5 | Punt | 0–14 |
| LA | Q2 1:34 | 6 | 39 | Field goal | 0–17 |
| CHI | Q2 0:44 | 6 | 14 | Turnover on downs | 0–17 |
| LA | Q3 15:00 | 10 | 80 | Touchdown | 0–24 |
| CHI | Q3 9:59 | 6 | 27 | Opp touchdown | 0–31 |
| LA | Q3 8:08 | 0 | 0 | Opp touchdown | 0–31 |
| CHI | Q3 8:08 | 11 | 67 | Touchdown | 6–31 |
| LA | Q3 3:00 | 0 | 0 | Punt | 6–31 |
| CHI | Q3 3:00 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 6–31 |
| LA | Q3 1:48 | 4 | 7 | Punt | 6–31 |
| CHI | Q4 14:47 | 8 | 61 | Touchdown | 12–31 |
| LA | Q4 11:18 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 12–31 |
| CHI | Q4 10:02 | 5 | 14 | Turnover on downs | 12–31 |
| LA | Q4 9:03 | 7 | 44 | Field goal | 12–34 |
| CHI | Q4 5:05 | 10 | 53 | Turnover on downs | 12–34 |
| LA | Q4 3:56 | 6 | 7 | Punt | 12–34 |
| CHI | Q4 1:25 | 6 | 68 | End of half | 12–34 |
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shane Matthews | 23/39 | 266 | 2 | 1 |
| Cade McNown | 9/16 | 125 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Allen | 6 | 30 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Curtis Enis | 7 | 21 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Cade McNown | 3 | 18 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Shane Matthews | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bobby Engram | 13 | 17 | 143 | 2 |
| Marcus Robinson | 6 | 12 | 93 | 0 |
| James Allen | 5 | 5 | 63 | 0 |
| John Allred | 2 | 2 | 34 | 0 |
| Ryan Wetnight | 4 | 4 | 26 | 0 |
| Alonzo Mayes | 1 | 1 | 24 | 0 |
| Marty Booker | 1 | 6 | 8 | 0 |
| D'Wayne Bates | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Edgar Bennett | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Curtis Enis | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Glyn Milburn | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
3.25%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.2%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.57
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+0.80
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.94
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.