1999 · Week 16 · Division

Final

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Mark Brunell

14·41

Titans

Tennessee

QB Steve McNair

Adelphia Coliseum · outdoors · grass · 46°F · wind 13mph

Closing spread

JAX -3

Total

39

Model margin

+1.8est.

TEN perspective

Push chance

7.1%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Titans
  • Jaguars

How each play moved the game.

Titans winsJaguars wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jaguarsedge mapTitans
  • +0.048EPA / play+0.007
  • 42.5%Success rate40.1%
  • +0.145EPA / dropback+0.067
  • -0.086EPA / rush-0.083
  • 8.0%Explosive rate8.5%
  • 40.4%Third-down rate39.0%
  • 46.2%Red-zone TD rate58.0%
  • 1.75Points / drive1.52
  • 1.5%Turnover rate2.1%
  • -0.127EPA / play allowed-0.042

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TEN lead 32–23 since 1999

JAX have won 4 straight. Meetings average 40.4 points. TEN are 28-25-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18TEN @ JAX7–41JAX
2025 · W13JAX @ TEN25–3JAX
2024 · W17TEN @ JAX13–20JAX
2024 · W14JAX @ TEN10–6JAX
2023 · W18JAX @ TEN20–28TEN
2023 · W11TEN @ JAX14–34JAX
2022 · W18TEN @ JAX16–20JAX
2022 · W14JAX @ TEN36–22JAX

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultJAX–TEN
TENQ1 15:001378Touchdown0–7
JAXQ1 7:24934Turnover0–7
TENQ1 3:19795Touchdown0–14
JAXQ2 14:463-6Punt0–14
TENQ2 13:46941Field goal0–17
JAXQ2 8:5639Punt0–17
TENQ2 7:1938Punt0–17
JAXQ2 5:34787Touchdown7–17
TENQ2 2:54956Touchdown7–24
JAXQ2 0:25511End of half7–24
JAXQ3 15:0031Punt7–24
TENQ3 13:51622Turnover on downs7–24
JAXQ3 11:313-8Punt7–24
TENQ3 10:1437Punt7–24
JAXQ3 8:3839Punt7–24
TENQ3 7:18165Touchdown7–31
JAXQ3 7:0710Turnover7–31
TENQ3 6:45736Touchdown13–38
JAXQ3 3:2400Touchdown14–38
TENQ3 3:061157Field goal14–41
JAXQ4 11:203-1Punt14–41
TENQ4 10:2836Punt14–41
JAXQ4 9:00951Turnover on downs14–41
TENQ4 4:1737Punt14–41
JAXQ4 2:44850Turnover14–41
TENQ4 1:022-2End of half14–41

Box score

Individual performances

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jay Fiedler8/2210102
Mark Brunell4/119501

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Fred Taylor16442.81
Mark Brunell11414.00
Jay Fiedler177.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jimmy Smith4101040
Kyle Brady35320
Keenan McCardell27220
Damon Jones25200
Fred Taylor13180
Lenzie Jackson0100
Alvis Whitted0100

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Steve McNair23/3329150
Neil O'Donnell3/63700

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Eddie George261023.90
Steve McNair4348.50
Rodney Thomas4133.30
Neil O'Donnell2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jackie Harris33721
Isaac Byrd23711
Frank Wycheck912640
Kevin Dyson56581
Eddie George35370
Yancey Thigpen23171
Chris Sanders1350
Michael Roan1341

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -34.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%2.9%

Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Jaguars.

Half-point at risk

7.10%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.9%

Expected total

45.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.75
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.81