Closing spread
JAX -3
Total
39
Model margin
+1.8est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
7.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Titans
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.048EPA / play+0.007
- 42.5%Success rate40.1%
- +0.145EPA / dropback+0.067
- -0.086EPA / rush-0.083
- 8.0%Explosive rate8.5%
- 40.4%Third-down rate39.0%
- 46.2%Red-zone TD rate58.0%
- 1.75Points / drive1.52
- 1.5%Turnover rate2.1%
- -0.127EPA / play allowed-0.042
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 32–23 since 1999
JAX have won 4 straight. Meetings average 40.4 points. TEN are 28-25-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Fiedler | 8/22 | 101 | 0 | 2 |
| Mark Brunell | 4/11 | 95 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Taylor | 16 | 44 | 2.8 | 1 |
| Mark Brunell | 1 | 14 | 14.0 | 0 |
| Jay Fiedler | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Smith | 4 | 10 | 104 | 0 |
| Kyle Brady | 3 | 5 | 32 | 0 |
| Keenan McCardell | 2 | 7 | 22 | 0 |
| Damon Jones | 2 | 5 | 20 | 0 |
| Fred Taylor | 1 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Lenzie Jackson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Alvis Whitted | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve McNair | 23/33 | 291 | 5 | 0 |
| Neil O'Donnell | 3/6 | 37 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eddie George | 26 | 102 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Steve McNair | 4 | 34 | 8.5 | 0 |
| Rodney Thomas | 4 | 13 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Neil O'Donnell | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackie Harris | 3 | 3 | 72 | 1 |
| Isaac Byrd | 2 | 3 | 71 | 1 |
| Frank Wycheck | 9 | 12 | 64 | 0 |
| Kevin Dyson | 5 | 6 | 58 | 1 |
| Eddie George | 3 | 5 | 37 | 0 |
| Yancey Thigpen | 2 | 3 | 17 | 1 |
| Chris Sanders | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| Michael Roan | 1 | 3 | 4 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
7.10%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.9%
Expected total
45.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.75
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.81