1999 · Week 16
Final / OT
3Com Park · outdoors · grass · 58°F · wind 0mph
Closing spread
WAS -7
Total
47.5
Model margin
+0.0est.
SF perspective
Push chance
4.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- 49ers
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.098EPA / play-0.036
- 44.4%Success rate41.7%
- +0.143EPA / dropback-0.026
- +0.036EPA / rush-0.054
- 10.8%Explosive rate8.5%
- 36.2%Third-down rate34.4%
- 68.3%Red-zone TD rate42.7%
- 1.78Points / drive1.14
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.8%
- -0.001EPA / play allowed+0.079
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 8–5 since 1999
SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40.2 points. SF are 7-5-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Johnson | 32/47 | 471 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Skip Hicks | 13 | 48 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Brad Johnson | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 |
| Brian Mitchell | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Westbrook | 7 | 10 | 125 | 1 |
| Albert Connell | 5 | 8 | 106 | 0 |
| Irving Fryar | 4 | 5 | 60 | 0 |
| Brian Mitchell | 3 | 3 | 55 | 0 |
| Skip Hicks | 4 | 5 | 52 | 0 |
| Stephen Alexander | 2 | 5 | 7 | 0 |
| James Jenkins | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Mike Sellers | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| James Thrash | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Garcia | 17/29 | 168 | 1 | 1 |
| Jerry Rice | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Garner | 16 | 129 | 8.1 | 1 |
| Jeff Garcia | 4 | 40 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Terry Jackson | 5 | 16 | 3.2 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greg Clark | 4 | 8 | 46 | 0 |
| Jerry Rice | 5 | 5 | 44 | 0 |
| Charlie Garner | 3 | 4 | 39 | 0 |
| J.J. Stokes | 2 | 3 | 31 | 1 |
| Terrell Owens | 1 | 6 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
4.40%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.2%
Expected total
46.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.61
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+0.04