1999 · Week 16

Final / OT

Commanders

Washington

QB Brad Johnson

26·20

49ers

San Francisco

QB Jeff Garcia

3Com Park · outdoors · grass · 58°F · wind 0mph

Closing spread

WAS -7

Total

47.5

Model margin

+0.0est.

SF perspective

Push chance

4.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • 49ers
  • Commanders

How each play moved the game.

49ers winsCommanders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Commandersedge map49ers
  • +0.098EPA / play-0.036
  • 44.4%Success rate41.7%
  • +0.143EPA / dropback-0.026
  • +0.036EPA / rush-0.054
  • 10.8%Explosive rate8.5%
  • 36.2%Third-down rate34.4%
  • 68.3%Red-zone TD rate42.7%
  • 1.78Points / drive1.14
  • 2.2%Turnover rate2.8%
  • -0.001EPA / play allowed+0.079

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SF lead 9–5 since 1999

SF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 40.1 points. SF are 7-6-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6WAS @ SF17–23SF
2023 · W17SF @ WAS27–10SF
2022 · W16WAS @ SF20–37SF
2020 · W14WAS @ SF23–15WAS
2019 · W7SF @ WAS9–0SF
2017 · W6SF @ WAS24–26WAS
2014 · W12WAS @ SF13–17SF
2013 · W12SF @ WAS27–6SF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultWAS–SF
WASQ1 15:0039Punt0–0
SFQ1 13:151371Touchdown0–7
WASQ1 6:05822Punt0–7
SFQ1 1:08430Punt0–7
WASQ2 13:30480Touchdown7–7
SFQ2 11:301065Field goal7–10
WASQ2 6:35529Punt7–10
SFQ2 4:16767Field goal7–13
WASQ2 1:38542Turnover on downs7–13
SFQ2 0:3433Punt7–13
WASQ2 0:0500End of half7–13
SFQ3 15:00619Punt7–13
WASQ3 11:32661Field goal10–13
SFQ3 8:541073Touchdown10–20
WASQ3 4:11837Punt10–20
SFQ4 14:522-5Turnover10–20
WASQ4 14:04414Field goal13–20
SFQ4 12:06431Punt13–20
WASQ4 10:17432Turnover13–20
SFQ4 8:4039Punt13–20
WASQ4 7:01967Touchdown20–20
SFQ4 3:28755Turnover20–20
WASQ4 1:33741Punt20–20
SFQ4 0:1810End of half20–20
WASOT478Touchdown26–20

Box score

Individual performances

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brad Johnson32/4747121

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Skip Hicks13483.70
Brad Johnson200.01
Brian Mitchell1-3-3.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Michael Westbrook7101251
Albert Connell581060
Irving Fryar45600
Brian Mitchell33550
Skip Hicks45520
Stephen Alexander2570
James Jenkins0100
Mike Sellers0100
James Thrash0200

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jeff Garcia17/2916811
Jerry Rice0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Charlie Garner161298.11
Jeff Garcia44010.00
Terry Jackson5163.20

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Greg Clark48460
Jerry Rice55440
Charlie Garner34390
J.J. Stokes23311
Terrell Owens1620

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -72.7%4.4%2.9%7.3%7.4%2.9%4.4%

Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Commanders.

Half-point at risk

4.40%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

49.2%

Expected total

46.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.61
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+0.04