Closing spread
JAX -9
Total
39.5
Model margin
+5.2est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
1.3%est.
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.068EPA / play+0.048
- 39.4%Success rate42.5%
- -0.034EPA / dropback+0.145
- -0.132EPA / rush-0.086
- 7.1%Explosive rate8.0%
- 39.2%Third-down rate40.4%
- 43.1%Red-zone TD rate46.2%
- 1.24Points / drive1.75
- 2.4%Turnover rate1.5%
- +0.041EPA / play allowed-0.127
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
JAX lead 10–9 since 1999
Meetings average 42.2 points. JAX are 9-7-3 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | CIN–JAX |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 0–0 |
| JAX | Q1 13:58 | 6 | 52 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| CIN | Q1 10:36 | 5 | 66 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| JAX | Q1 9:15 | 8 | 60 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| CIN | Q1 5:34 | 7 | 62 | Turnover | 7–7 |
| JAX | Q1 1:46 | 9 | 64 | Touchdown | 7–14 |
| CIN | Q2 13:15 | 8 | 27 | Punt | 7–14 |
| JAX | Q2 9:39 | 7 | 54 | Missed field goal | 7–14 |
| CIN | Q2 4:36 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 7–14 |
| JAX | Q2 3:13 | 10 | 54 | Field goal | 7–17 |
| CIN | Q2 0:21 | 3 | 13 | End of half | 7–17 |
| JAX | Q3 15:00 | 15 | 73 | Missed field goal | 7–17 |
| CIN | Q3 6:42 | 4 | 0 | Punt | 7–17 |
| JAX | Q3 5:16 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 7–17 |
| CIN | Q3 4:16 | 8 | 35 | Turnover | 7–17 |
| JAX | Q3 0:14 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 7–17 |
| CIN | Q4 14:06 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 7–17 |
| JAX | Q4 12:09 | 7 | 24 | Touchdown | 7–24 |
| CIN | Q4 9:19 | 7 | 26 | Turnover on downs | 7–24 |
| JAX | Q4 5:52 | 11 | 49 | End of half | 7–24 |
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Blake | 13/23 | 141 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Basnight | 10 | 86 | 8.6 | 0 |
| Sedrick Shaw | 4 | 20 | 5.0 | 1 |
| Jeff Blake | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Basnight | 3 | 3 | 58 | 0 |
| Carl Pickens | 3 | 6 | 31 | 0 |
| Darnay Scott | 2 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| Marco Battaglia | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Willie Jackson | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| James Hundon | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Tony McGee | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Sedrick Shaw | 1 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Fiedler | 28/39 | 317 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Taylor | 22 | 85 | 3.9 | 2 |
| James Stewart | 9 | 42 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Chris Howard | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Jay Fiedler | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Smith | 14 | 19 | 165 | 0 |
| Keenan McCardell | 9 | 13 | 108 | 1 |
| Kyle Brady | 3 | 4 | 32 | 0 |
| Damon Jones | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Fred Taylor | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
1.29%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.8%
Expected total
45.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.15
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-0.52
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.19