Closing spread
IND -1.5
Total
42
Model margin
+4.5est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bills
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.072EPA / play-0.010
- 41.4%Success rate40.3%
- +0.193EPA / dropback+0.116
- -0.106EPA / rush-0.195
- 9.5%Explosive rate7.9%
- 39.4%Third-down rate41.4%
- 52.1%Red-zone TD rate56.2%
- 1.88Points / drive1.59
- 2.8%Turnover rate2.5%
- -0.036EPA / play allowed-0.138
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 10–6 since 1999
Meetings average 42.9 points. BUF are 6-9-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | IND–BUF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IND | Q1 15:00 | 9 | 72 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| BUF | Q1 9:40 | 7 | 83 | Touchdown | 3–7 |
| IND | Q1 5:22 | 6 | 21 | Punt | 3–7 |
| BUF | Q1 2:00 | 6 | 80 | Touchdown | 3–14 |
| IND | Q2 14:07 | 14 | 61 | Field goal | 6–14 |
| BUF | Q2 6:38 | 13 | 82 | Touchdown | 6–21 |
| IND | Q2 0:27 | 3 | 10 | End of half | 6–21 |
| BUF | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 6–21 |
| IND | Q3 13:35 | 6 | 20 | Punt | 6–21 |
| BUF | Q3 10:08 | 8 | 38 | Punt | 6–21 |
| IND | Q3 6:38 | 5 | 15 | Punt | 6–21 |
| BUF | Q3 3:40 | 8 | 44 | Touchdown | 6–28 |
| IND | Q4 14:11 | 5 | 14 | Punt | 6–28 |
| BUF | Q4 12:23 | 5 | 31 | Punt | 6–28 |
| IND | Q4 8:28 | 6 | 18 | Turnover on downs | 6–28 |
| BUF | Q4 7:18 | 9 | 44 | Field goal | 6–31 |
| IND | Q4 3:37 | 3 | -5 | Turnover | 6–31 |
| BUF | Q4 2:15 | 2 | 11 | End of half | 6–31 |
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 18/29 | 163 | 0 | 0 |
| Steve Walsh | 3/8 | 19 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edgerrin James | 18 | 50 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Keith Elias | 1 | -6 | -6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ken Dilger | 5 | 7 | 52 | 0 |
| Marvin Harrison | 4 | 5 | 51 | 0 |
| Edgerrin James | 4 | 6 | 33 | 0 |
| Terrence Wilkins | 3 | 8 | 25 | 0 |
| Marcus Pollard | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Keith Elias | 2 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| E.G. Green | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rob Johnson | 24/32 | 287 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rob Johnson | 7 | 36 | 5.1 | 0 |
| Antowain Smith | 3 | 31 | 10.3 | 1 |
| Lennox Gordon | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Moulds | 8 | 11 | 110 | 0 |
| Kevin R. Williams | 2 | 3 | 53 | 0 |
| Peerless Price | 2 | 2 | 31 | 1 |
| Jay Riemersma | 2 | 3 | 28 | 0 |
| Andre Reed | 5 | 6 | 23 | 0 |
| Sheldon Jackson | 2 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Bobby Collins | 2 | 3 | 8 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
2.01%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.2%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.97
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+0.02
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.55