Closing spread
STL -8
Total
42
Model margin
+1.0est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
1.8%est.
Win probability
- Eagles
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
PHI lead 12–4 since 1999
PHI have won 4 straight. Meetings average 48.1 points. PHI are 12-3-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 15/32 | 179 | 3 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duce Staley | 18 | 44 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Donovan McNabb | 5 | 7 | 1.4 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torrance Small | 6 | 12 | 98 | 1 |
| Na Brown | 3 | 5 | 26 | 0 |
| Chad Lewis | 2 | 4 | 26 | 1 |
| Duce Staley | 2 | 3 | 14 | 1 |
| Cecil Martin | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Luther Broughton | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Dameane Douglas | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Dietrich Jells | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jed Weaver | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
1.84%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.7%
Expected total
42.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.46
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-1.68
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+0.98
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.