Closing spread
STL -8
Total
42
Model margin
+1.0est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
1.8%est.
Win probability
- Eagles
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
PHI lead 12–5 since 1999
Meetings average 47.8 points. PHI are 12-4-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | STL–PHI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | Q1 15:00 | 4 | 6 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LA | Q1 13:06 | 4 | 21 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| PHI | Q1 11:16 | 3 | 4 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| LA | Q1 9:50 | 2 | 8 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| PHI | Q1 9:42 | 3 | -2 | Field goal | 7–3 |
| LA | Q1 7:27 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 7–3 |
| PHI | Q1 5:43 | 8 | 25 | Punt | 7–3 |
| LA | Q1 1:22 | 8 | 86 | Touchdown | 14–3 |
| PHI | Q2 11:57 | 3 | 74 | Touchdown | 14–10 |
| LA | Q2 10:14 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 14–10 |
| PHI | Q2 9:10 | 3 | 3 | Turnover | 14–10 |
| LA | Q2 7:47 | 3 | 4 | Field goal | 17–10 |
| PHI | Q2 6:20 | 4 | 22 | Punt | 17–10 |
| LA | Q2 4:37 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 17–10 |
| PHI | Q2 3:03 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 17–10 |
| LA | Q2 2:39 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 17–10 |
| PHI | Q2 2:01 | 5 | 23 | Touchdown | 17–17 |
| LA | Q2 0:32 | 1 | 7 | End of half | 17–17 |
| LA | Q3 15:00 | 5 | 13 | Opp touchdown | 17–24 |
| PHI | Q3 12:15 | 0 | 0 | Opp touchdown | 17–24 |
| LA | Q3 12:15 | 6 | 67 | Touchdown | 24–24 |
| PHI | Q3 9:22 | 7 | 27 | Punt | 24–24 |
| LA | Q3 5:38 | 13 | 66 | Turnover | 24–24 |
| PHI | Q4 14:06 | 7 | 18 | Touchdown | 24–31 |
| LA | Q4 10:55 | 9 | 43 | Turnover | 24–31 |
| PHI | Q4 6:22 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 24–31 |
| LA | Q4 5:20 | 2 | 0 | Turnover | 24–31 |
| PHI | Q4 5:01 | 3 | 5 | Missed field goal | 24–31 |
| LA | Q4 4:41 | 4 | 42 | Turnover | 24–31 |
| PHI | Q4 3:00 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 24–31 |
| LA | Q4 1:55 | 3 | 2 | Opp touchdown | 24–38 |
| PHI | Q4 1:16 | 0 | 0 | Opp touchdown | 24–38 |
| LA | Q4 1:16 | 1 | 63 | Touchdown | 31–38 |
| PHI | Q4 0:59 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 31–38 |
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 15/32 | 179 | 3 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duce Staley | 18 | 44 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Donovan McNabb | 5 | 7 | 1.4 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torrance Small | 6 | 12 | 98 | 1 |
| Na Brown | 3 | 5 | 26 | 0 |
| Chad Lewis | 2 | 4 | 26 | 1 |
| Duce Staley | 2 | 3 | 14 | 1 |
| Cecil Martin | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Luther Broughton | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Dameane Douglas | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Dietrich Jells | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jed Weaver | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
1.84%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.7%
Expected total
42.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.46
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-1.68
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+0.98
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.