Closing spread
TEN -5
Total
39
Model margin
+1.4est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
1.9%est.
Win probability
- Titans
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.010EPA / play+0.007
- 40.3%Success rate40.1%
- +0.116EPA / dropback+0.067
- -0.195EPA / rush-0.083
- 7.9%Explosive rate8.5%
- 41.4%Third-down rate39.0%
- 56.2%Red-zone TD rate58.0%
- 1.59Points / drive1.52
- 2.5%Turnover rate2.1%
- -0.138EPA / play allowed-0.042
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 8–6 since 1999
BUF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45.4 points. TEN are 7-7 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | BUF–TEN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEN | Q1 15:00 | 3 | -6 | Punt | 0–0 |
| BUF | Q1 13:17 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–0 |
| TEN | Q1 11:55 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–0 |
| BUF | Q1 10:20 | 5 | 19 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| TEN | Q1 8:44 | 3 | 3 | Missed field goal | 0–0 |
| BUF | Q1 7:50 | 10 | 29 | Punt | 0–0 |
| TEN | Q1 2:13 | 9 | 34 | Punt | 0–0 |
| BUF | Q2 12:08 | 2 | -4 | Safety | 0–2 |
| TEN | Q2 11:19 | 6 | 18 | Touchdown | 0–9 |
| BUF | Q2 7:55 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–9 |
| TEN | Q2 6:11 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 0–9 |
| BUF | Q2 4:51 | 4 | 11 | Punt | 0–9 |
| TEN | Q2 3:56 | 3 | 15 | Turnover | 0–9 |
| BUF | Q2 2:25 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 0–9 |
| TEN | Q2 1:46 | 9 | 46 | Field goal | 0–12 |
| BUF | Q3 15:00 | 5 | 62 | Touchdown | 7–12 |
| TEN | Q3 12:28 | 3 | -6 | Punt | 7–12 |
| BUF | Q3 10:54 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 7–12 |
| TEN | Q3 9:55 | 7 | 18 | Turnover | 7–12 |
| BUF | Q3 5:41 | 3 | -6 | Punt | 7–12 |
| TEN | Q3 4:22 | 5 | 16 | Punt | 7–12 |
| BUF | Q3 0:41 | 10 | 58 | Touchdown | 13–12 |
| TEN | Q4 11:08 | 5 | 19 | Punt | 13–12 |
| BUF | Q4 7:29 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 13–12 |
| TEN | Q4 6:15 | 9 | 27 | Field goal | 13–15 |
| BUF | Q4 1:48 | 5 | 38 | Field goal | 16–21 |
| TEN | Q4 0:16 | 0 | 0 | Touchdown | 16–22 |
| BUF | Q4 0:03 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 16–22 |
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rob Johnson | 10/22 | 131 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antowain Smith | 14 | 79 | 5.6 | 2 |
| Thurman Thomas | 5 | 10 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Rob Johnson | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Moulds | 3 | 7 | 62 | 0 |
| Peerless Price | 5 | 7 | 62 | 0 |
| Bobby Collins | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Andre Reed | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jay Riemersma | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Kevin R. Williams | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve McNair | 13/24 | 76 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eddie George | 29 | 106 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Steve McNair | 6 | 19 | 3.2 | 1 |
| Rodney Thomas | 4 | 14 | 3.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Wycheck | 4 | 5 | 29 | 0 |
| Jackie Harris | 4 | 5 | 20 | 0 |
| Chris Sanders | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Yancey Thigpen | 1 | 4 | 8 | 0 |
| Kevin Dyson | 1 | 5 | 4 | 0 |
| Eddie George | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
1.91%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.9%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.12
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-0.02
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.42