Closing spread
TEN -5
Total
39
Model margin
+1.4est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
1.9%est.
Win probability
- Titans
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.010EPA / play+0.007
- 40.3%Success rate40.1%
- +0.116EPA / dropback+0.067
- -0.195EPA / rush-0.083
- 7.9%Explosive rate8.5%
- 41.4%Third-down rate39.0%
- 56.2%Red-zone TD rate58.0%
- 1.59Points / drive1.52
- 2.5%Turnover rate2.1%
- -0.138EPA / play allowed-0.042
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 8–6 since 1999
BUF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45.4 points. TEN are 7-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rob Johnson | 10/22 | 131 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antowain Smith | 14 | 79 | 5.6 | 2 |
| Thurman Thomas | 5 | 10 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Rob Johnson | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Moulds | 3 | 7 | 62 | 0 |
| Peerless Price | 5 | 7 | 62 | 0 |
| Bobby Collins | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Andre Reed | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jay Riemersma | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Kevin R. Williams | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve McNair | 13/24 | 76 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eddie George | 29 | 106 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Steve McNair | 6 | 19 | 3.2 | 1 |
| Rodney Thomas | 4 | 14 | 3.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Wycheck | 4 | 5 | 29 | 0 |
| Jackie Harris | 4 | 5 | 20 | 0 |
| Chris Sanders | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Yancey Thigpen | 1 | 4 | 8 | 0 |
| Kevin Dyson | 1 | 5 | 4 | 0 |
| Eddie George | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
1.91%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.9%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.12
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-0.02
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.42