2019 · Week 5

Final

Bills

Buffalo

QB Josh Allen

14·7

Titans

Tennessee

QB Marcus Mariota

Nissan Stadium · outdoors · grass · 77°F · wind 13mph

Closing spread

TEN -3.5

Total

39.5

Model margin

-0.4est.

TEN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bills

Titans

Win probability

  • Titans
  • Bills

How each play moved the game.

Titans winsBills wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Billsedge mapTitans
  • -0.023EPA / play+0.063
  • 41.8%Success rate45.7%
  • +0.020EPA / dropback+0.143
  • -0.085EPA / rush-0.046
  • 10.1%Explosive rate11.6%
  • -2.62CPOE+3.45
  • 35.9%Third-down rate39.4%
  • 58.3%Red-zone TD rate74.8%
  • 1.56Points / drive1.99
  • 1.8%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TEN lead 8–6 since 1999

BUF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45.4 points. TEN are 7-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W7TEN @ BUF10–34BUF
2022 · W2TEN @ BUF7–41BUF
2021 · W6BUF @ TEN31–34TEN
2020 · W5BUF @ TEN16–42TEN
2018 · W5TEN @ BUF12–13BUF
2015 · W5BUF @ TEN14–13BUF
2012 · W7TEN @ BUF35–34TEN
2011 · W13TEN @ BUF23–17TEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBUF–TEN
TENQ1 15:00423Punt0–0
BUFQ1 12:04422Punt0–0
TENQ1 9:3737Punt0–0
BUFQ1 8:051145Turnover on downs0–0
TENQ1 3:12638Missed field goal0–0
BUFQ2 14:55517Punt0–0
TENQ2 12:033-7Punt0–0
BUFQ2 10:02615Punt0–0
TENQ2 6:403-8Punt0–0
BUFQ2 5:22660Touchdown7–0
TENQ2 2:36738Missed field goal7–0
BUFQ2 0:4416End of half7–0
BUFQ3 15:0030Punt7–0
TENQ3 13:0437Punt7–0
BUFQ3 11:4249Turnover7–0
TENQ3 10:30833Touchdown7–7
BUFQ3 7:0200Punt7–7
BUFQ3 6:54626Punt7–7
TENQ3 3:551191Missed field goal7–7
BUFQ4 12:23662Touchdown14–7
TENQ4 9:46625Missed field goal14–7
BUFQ4 6:3131Punt14–7
TENQ4 5:2735Punt14–7
BUFQ4 4:12752End of half14–7

Box score

Individual performances

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Allen23/3221921

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Frank Gore14604.30
Josh Allen10272.70
T.J. Yeldon2157.50
Andre Roberts177.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
John Brown55750
Isaiah McKenzie22520
Duke Williams44291
Cole Beasley34210
T.J. Yeldon44130
Dawson Knox25120
Frank Gore2290
Lee Smith1181
Tommy Sweeney0200

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Marcus Mariota13/2218300

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Derrick Henry20783.91
Marcus Mariota5132.60
Dion Lewis2115.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jonnu Smith12570
Adam Humphries46300
Corey Davis24280
A.J. Brown22270
Dion Lewis24190
Tajae Sharpe11120
Delanie Walker12100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.52.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.3%2.6%

Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Bills.

Half-point at risk

2.43%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

47.9%

Expected total

43.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.19
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment-3.35
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.42