Closing spread
TEN -3.5
Total
39.5
Model margin
-0.4est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Titans
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.023EPA / play+0.063
- 41.8%Success rate45.7%
- +0.020EPA / dropback+0.143
- -0.085EPA / rush-0.046
- 10.1%Explosive rate11.6%
- -2.62CPOE+3.45
- 35.9%Third-down rate39.4%
- 58.3%Red-zone TD rate74.8%
- 1.56Points / drive1.99
- 1.8%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 8–6 since 1999
BUF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45.4 points. TEN are 7-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 23/32 | 219 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 14 | 60 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Josh Allen | 10 | 27 | 2.7 | 0 |
| T.J. Yeldon | 2 | 15 | 7.5 | 0 |
| Andre Roberts | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Brown | 5 | 5 | 75 | 0 |
| Isaiah McKenzie | 2 | 2 | 52 | 0 |
| Duke Williams | 4 | 4 | 29 | 1 |
| Cole Beasley | 3 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| T.J. Yeldon | 4 | 4 | 13 | 0 |
| Dawson Knox | 2 | 5 | 12 | 0 |
| Frank Gore | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Lee Smith | 1 | 1 | 8 | 1 |
| Tommy Sweeney | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Mariota | 13/22 | 183 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | 20 | 78 | 3.9 | 1 |
| Marcus Mariota | 5 | 13 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Dion Lewis | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonnu Smith | 1 | 2 | 57 | 0 |
| Adam Humphries | 4 | 6 | 30 | 0 |
| Corey Davis | 2 | 4 | 28 | 0 |
| A.J. Brown | 2 | 2 | 27 | 0 |
| Dion Lewis | 2 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| Tajae Sharpe | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Delanie Walker | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
2.43%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.9%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.19
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment-3.35
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.42