Closing spread
BUF -4
Total
47
Model margin
+3.2est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bills
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.093EPA / play-0.007
- 38.0%Success rate42.3%
- -0.054EPA / dropback+0.004
- -0.166EPA / rush-0.021
- 8.2%Explosive rate10.0%
- -2.87CPOE-1.57
- 38.2%Third-down rate39.8%
- 55.5%Red-zone TD rate58.2%
- 1.29Points / drive1.58
- 2.8%Turnover rate3.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 8–6 since 1999
BUF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45.4 points. BUF are 7-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hasselbeck | 22/33 | 205 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Johnson | 18 | 195 | 10.8 | 2 |
| Jamie Harper | 7 | 8 | 1.1 | 2 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
| Darius Reynaud | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nate Washington | 6 | 8 | 43 | 1 |
| Damian Williams | 3 | 4 | 38 | 0 |
| Jared Cook | 2 | 5 | 37 | 0 |
| Kenny Britt | 4 | 6 | 30 | 0 |
| Kendall Wright | 3 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Darius Reynaud | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Craig Stevens | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| Chris Johnson | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Taylor Thompson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 27/35 | 225 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Jackson | 9 | 71 | 7.9 | 0 |
| C.J. Spiller | 12 | 70 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 2 | 23 | 11.5 | 0 |
| Brad Smith | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Johnson | 5 | 7 | 71 | 1 |
| Fred Jackson | 8 | 11 | 49 | 1 |
| Donald Jones | 4 | 5 | 47 | 1 |
| C.J. Spiller | 6 | 6 | 32 | 0 |
| Scott Chandler | 2 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
| Trevor Graham | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Brad Smith | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.7%
Expected total
42.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.54
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+0.43
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+3.21