2012 · Week 7

Final

Titans

Tennessee

QB Matt Hasselbeck

35·34

Bills

Buffalo

QB Ryan Fitzpatrick

Ralph Wilson Stadium · outdoors · a_turf · 55°F · wind 15mph

Closing spread

BUF -4

Total

47

Model margin

+3.2est.

BUF perspective

Push chance

2.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Titans

Bills

Win probability

  • Bills
  • Titans

How each play moved the game.

Bills winsTitans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Titansedge mapBills
  • -0.093EPA / play-0.007
  • 38.0%Success rate42.3%
  • -0.054EPA / dropback+0.004
  • -0.166EPA / rush-0.021
  • 8.2%Explosive rate10.0%
  • -2.87CPOE-1.57
  • 38.2%Third-down rate39.8%
  • 55.5%Red-zone TD rate58.2%
  • 1.29Points / drive1.58
  • 2.8%Turnover rate3.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TEN lead 8–6 since 1999

BUF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45.4 points. BUF are 7-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W7TEN @ BUF10–34BUF
2022 · W2TEN @ BUF7–41BUF
2021 · W6BUF @ TEN31–34TEN
2020 · W5BUF @ TEN16–42TEN
2019 · W5BUF @ TEN14–7BUF
2018 · W5TEN @ BUF12–13BUF
2015 · W5BUF @ TEN14–13BUF
2011 · W13TEN @ BUF23–17TEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTEN–BUF
TENQ1 15:00972Touchdown7–0
BUFQ1 10:381393Touchdown7–7
TENQ1 3:01183Touchdown14–13
BUFQ1 2:4300Touchdown14–14
TENQ1 2:311480Touchdown21–14
BUFQ2 10:18968Field goal21–17
TENQ2 3:56525Punt21–17
BUFQ2 1:47953Field goal21–20
BUFQ3 15:001-9Turnover21–20
TENQ3 14:43832Touchdown28–20
BUFQ3 11:45766Touchdown28–27
TENQ3 7:52511Punt28–27
BUFQ3 4:41980Touchdown28–34
TENQ3 0:05932Punt28–34
BUFQ4 9:33620Punt28–34
TENQ4 5:3355Turnover on downs28–34
BUFQ4 3:5533Turnover28–34
TENQ4 2:57752Touchdown35–34
BUFQ4 1:0348Turnover on downs35–34
TENQ4 0:2600End of half35–34

Box score

Individual performances

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Hasselbeck22/3320510

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Johnson1819510.82
Jamie Harper781.12
Matt Hasselbeck1-2-2.00
Darius Reynaud1-4-4.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Nate Washington68431
Damian Williams34380
Jared Cook25370
Kenny Britt46300
Kendall Wright33190
Darius Reynaud22180
Craig Stevens11170
Chris Johnson1230
Taylor Thompson0100

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Fitzpatrick27/3522531

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Fred Jackson9717.90
C.J. Spiller12705.80
Ryan Fitzpatrick22311.50
Brad Smith122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Steve Johnson57711
Fred Jackson811491
Donald Jones45471
C.J. Spiller66320
Scott Chandler24150
Trevor Graham1160
Brad Smith1150

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +43.9%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Titans.

Half-point at risk

2.55%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.7%

Expected total

42.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.54
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.43
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin+3.21