Closing spread
BUF -10
Total
47.5
Model margin
+5.9est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
3.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bills
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.066EPA / play+0.111
- 41.2%Success rate49.0%
- -0.034EPA / dropback+0.203
- -0.104EPA / rush-0.064
- 8.9%Explosive rate9.3%
- -0.94CPOE+0.35
- 37.1%Third-down rate51.1%
- 67.5%Red-zone TD rate61.8%
- 1.46Points / drive2.48
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 8–6 since 1999
BUF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45.4 points. BUF are 7-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 11/20 | 117 | 0 | 2 |
| Malik Willis | 1/4 | 6 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hassan Haskins | 9 | 37 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Derrick Henry | 13 | 25 | 1.9 | 1 |
| Malik Willis | 4 | 16 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Treylon Burks | 4 | 6 | 47 | 0 |
| Robert Woods | 4 | 5 | 39 | 0 |
| Austin Hooper | 1 | 5 | 19 | 0 |
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | 1 | 4 | 13 | 0 |
| Kyle Philips | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Josh Gordon | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Hassan Haskins | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 26/38 | 317 | 4 | 0 |
| Case Keenum | 0/2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Cook | 11 | 53 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Devin Singletary | 6 | 19 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Zack Moss | 3 | 17 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Josh Allen | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Case Keenum | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stefon Diggs | 12 | 15 | 148 | 3 |
| Jake Kumerow | 2 | 3 | 50 | 0 |
| Dawson Knox | 4 | 5 | 41 | 0 |
| Isaiah McKenzie | 2 | 3 | 37 | 0 |
| Reggie Gilliam | 2 | 3 | 17 | 1 |
| Jamison Crowder | 1 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Quintin Morris | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Devin Singletary | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
| Zack Moss | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| James Cook | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Khalil Shakir | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
3.32%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
64.6%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.92
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+5.86