2022 · Week 2

Final

Titans

Tennessee

QB Ryan Tannehill

7·41

Bills

Buffalo

QB Josh Allen

New Era Field · outdoors · a_turf

Closing spread

BUF -10

Total

47.5

Model margin

+5.9est.

BUF perspective

Push chance

3.3%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Titans

Bills

Win probability

  • Bills
  • Titans

How each play moved the game.

Bills winsTitans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Titansedge mapBills
  • -0.066EPA / play+0.111
  • 41.2%Success rate49.0%
  • -0.034EPA / dropback+0.203
  • -0.104EPA / rush-0.064
  • 8.9%Explosive rate9.3%
  • -0.94CPOE+0.35
  • 37.1%Third-down rate51.1%
  • 67.5%Red-zone TD rate61.8%
  • 1.46Points / drive2.48
  • 2.0%Turnover rate2.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TEN lead 8–6 since 1999

BUF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45.4 points. BUF are 7-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W7TEN @ BUF10–34BUF
2021 · W6BUF @ TEN31–34TEN
2020 · W5BUF @ TEN16–42TEN
2019 · W5BUF @ TEN14–7BUF
2018 · W5TEN @ BUF12–13BUF
2015 · W5BUF @ TEN14–13BUF
2012 · W7TEN @ BUF35–34TEN
2011 · W13TEN @ BUF23–17TEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTEN–BUF
BUFQ1 15:001275Touchdown0–7
TENQ1 9:07960Touchdown7–7
BUFQ1 5:23831Turnover on downs7–7
TENQ1 1:181026Punt7–7
BUFQ2 9:54646Field goal7–10
TENQ2 7:2030Punt7–10
BUFQ2 5:10882Touchdown7–17
TENQ2 1:0034End of half7–17
TENQ3 15:00520Punt7–17
BUFQ3 12:44875Touchdown7–24
TENQ3 10:183-1Punt7–24
BUFQ3 9:1439Punt7–24
BUFQ3 8:2231Field goal7–27
TENQ3 7:3223Turnover7–27
BUFQ3 6:47437Touchdown7–34
TENQ3 5:34420Opp touchdown7–41
TENQ3 3:49618Punt7–41
BUFQ3 0:1433Punt7–41
TENQ4 14:39829Turnover7–41
BUFQ4 10:4433Punt7–41
TENQ4 8:2738Punt7–41
BUFQ4 6:39854End of half7–41

Box score

Individual performances

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Tannehill11/2011702
Malik Willis1/4600

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Hassan Haskins9374.10
Derrick Henry13251.91
Malik Willis4164.00
Ryan Tannehill122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Treylon Burks46470
Robert Woods45390
Austin Hooper15190
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine14130
Kyle Philips1150
Josh Gordon0100
Hassan Haskins1100

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Allen26/3831740
Case Keenum0/2000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Cook11534.80
Devin Singletary6193.20
Zack Moss3175.70
Josh Allen11010.00
Case Keenum320.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Stefon Diggs12151483
Jake Kumerow23500
Dawson Knox45410
Isaiah McKenzie23370
Reggie Gilliam23171
Jamison Crowder12160
Quintin Morris1160
Devin Singletary2320
Zack Moss0100
James Cook0100
Khalil Shakir0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +106.2%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Titans.

Half-point at risk

3.32%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

64.6%

Expected total

44.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.92
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.24
  • Expected margin+5.86