Closing spread
BUF -3
Total
52
Model margin
+0.5est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
7.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Titans
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.169EPA / play+0.189
- 50.4%Success rate50.8%
- +0.298EPA / dropback+0.297
- -0.081EPA / rush+0.070
- 10.7%Explosive rate10.3%
- +6.29CPOE+2.16
- 49.9%Third-down rate47.4%
- 68.4%Red-zone TD rate76.8%
- 2.78Points / drive2.85
- 1.9%Turnover rate1.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 8–6 since 1999
BUF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45.4 points. TEN are 7-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 26/41 | 263 | 2 | 2 |
| Matt Barkley | 3/5 | 22 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.J. Yeldon | 7 | 52 | 7.4 | 0 |
| Devin Singletary | 11 | 25 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Josh Allen | 4 | 18 | 4.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stefon Diggs | 10 | 16 | 106 | 0 |
| Gabe Davis | 5 | 9 | 58 | 0 |
| Cole Beasley | 6 | 6 | 53 | 0 |
| T.J. Yeldon | 1 | 3 | 22 | 1 |
| Andre Roberts | 1 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Dawson Knox | 1 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Devin Singletary | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Isaiah McKenzie | 4 | 4 | 7 | 1 |
| Taiwan Jones | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 21/28 | 195 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | 19 | 57 | 3.0 | 2 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 4 | 42 | 10.5 | 1 |
| Jeremy McNichols | 9 | 28 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Darrynton Evans | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Brown | 7 | 9 | 82 | 1 |
| Jonnu Smith | 5 | 7 | 40 | 2 |
| Kalif Raymond | 2 | 2 | 26 | 0 |
| Anthony Firkser | 3 | 5 | 19 | 0 |
| Cody Hollister | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Derrick Henry | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Jeremy McNichols | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
7.29%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.4%
Expected total
46.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.76
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+0.50