2024 · Week 7

Final

Titans

Tennessee

QB Mason Rudolph

10·34

Bills

Buffalo

QB Josh Allen

New Era Field · outdoors · a_turf · 66°F · wind 12mph

Closing spread

BUF -9.5

Total

41

Model margin

+3.2est.

BUF perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Titans

Bills

Win probability

  • Bills
  • Titans

How each play moved the game.

Bills winsTitans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Titansedge mapBills
  • -0.104EPA / play+0.186
  • 40.4%Success rate47.8%
  • -0.056EPA / dropback+0.298
  • -0.175EPA / rush+0.029
  • 8.3%Explosive rate9.5%
  • +0.11CPOE+0.64
  • 38.0%Third-down rate45.6%
  • 58.5%Red-zone TD rate75.1%
  • 1.35Points / drive2.90
  • 3.0%Turnover rate0.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TEN lead 8–6 since 1999

BUF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45.4 points. BUF are 7-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2022 · W2TEN @ BUF7–41BUF
2021 · W6BUF @ TEN31–34TEN
2020 · W5BUF @ TEN16–42TEN
2019 · W5BUF @ TEN14–7BUF
2018 · W5TEN @ BUF12–13BUF
2015 · W5BUF @ TEN14–13BUF
2012 · W7TEN @ BUF35–34TEN
2011 · W13TEN @ BUF23–17TEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTEN–BUF
BUFQ1 15:0039Punt0–0
TENQ1 13:31417Punt0–0
BUFQ1 11:1435Punt0–0
TENQ1 10:001361Field goal3–0
BUFQ1 2:5734Punt3–0
TENQ1 1:161070Touchdown10–0
BUFQ2 11:31361Touchdown10–7
TENQ2 10:04413Turnover10–7
BUFQ2 8:3052Punt10–7
TENQ2 6:07517Punt10–7
BUFQ2 2:4139Punt10–7
TENQ2 0:44439End of half10–7
TENQ3 15:0045Turnover on downs10–7
BUFQ3 12:55641Touchdown10–14
TENQ3 10:236-3Punt10–14
BUFQ3 8:05959Field goal10–17
TENQ3 4:1249Punt10–17
BUFQ3 2:49656Touchdown10–24
TENQ4 14:5430Punt10–24
BUFQ4 14:25959Field goal10–27
TENQ4 9:261250Turnover10–27
BUFQ4 4:37584Touchdown10–34
TENQ4 1:53311End of half10–34

Box score

Individual performances

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mason Rudolph25/4021511

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tony Pollard16613.80
Julius Chestnut3155.00
Mason Rudolph5132.60

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Chig Okonkwo44500
Tyler Boyd55430
Calvin Ridley39420
Josh Whyle34340
Nick Vannett44250
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine24101
Julius Chestnut1190
Tony Pollard2640
DeAndre Hopkins11-20

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Allen21/3332320

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ray Davis5418.21
James Cook12322.71
Josh Allen310.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Keon Coleman471250
Amari Cooper45661
Khalil Shakir77650
Dalton Kincaid36520
Ray Davis1160
Dawson Knox1350
Ty Johnson1141
Curtis Samuel0100
Mack Hollins0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +9.56.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Titans.

Half-point at risk

3.08%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.6%

Expected total

44.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.75
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-3.18
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+3.19