Closing spread
BUF -9.5
Total
41
Model margin
+3.2est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bills
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.104EPA / play+0.186
- 40.4%Success rate47.8%
- -0.056EPA / dropback+0.298
- -0.175EPA / rush+0.029
- 8.3%Explosive rate9.5%
- +0.11CPOE+0.64
- 38.0%Third-down rate45.6%
- 58.5%Red-zone TD rate75.1%
- 1.35Points / drive2.90
- 3.0%Turnover rate0.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 8–6 since 1999
BUF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45.4 points. BUF are 7-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason Rudolph | 25/40 | 215 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Pollard | 16 | 61 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Julius Chestnut | 3 | 15 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Mason Rudolph | 5 | 13 | 2.6 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chig Okonkwo | 4 | 4 | 50 | 0 |
| Tyler Boyd | 5 | 5 | 43 | 0 |
| Calvin Ridley | 3 | 9 | 42 | 0 |
| Josh Whyle | 3 | 4 | 34 | 0 |
| Nick Vannett | 4 | 4 | 25 | 0 |
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | 2 | 4 | 10 | 1 |
| Julius Chestnut | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Tony Pollard | 2 | 6 | 4 | 0 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 21/33 | 323 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ray Davis | 5 | 41 | 8.2 | 1 |
| James Cook | 12 | 32 | 2.7 | 1 |
| Josh Allen | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keon Coleman | 4 | 7 | 125 | 0 |
| Amari Cooper | 4 | 5 | 66 | 1 |
| Khalil Shakir | 7 | 7 | 65 | 0 |
| Dalton Kincaid | 3 | 6 | 52 | 0 |
| Ray Davis | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Dawson Knox | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| Ty Johnson | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
| Curtis Samuel | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Mack Hollins | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
3.08%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.6%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.75
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-3.18
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+3.19