Closing spread
TEN -6
Total
38
Model margin
+2.4est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
2.7%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bills
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.029EPA / play-0.140
- 42.6%Success rate37.8%
- +0.023EPA / dropback-0.137
- -0.094EPA / rush-0.143
- 9.3%Explosive rate7.7%
- +1.50CPOE-7.12
- 40.0%Third-down rate32.3%
- 53.8%Red-zone TD rate50.4%
- 1.83Points / drive1.26
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 8–6 since 1999
BUF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45.4 points. BUF are 7-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Mariota | 14/26 | 129 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | 11 | 56 | 5.1 | 0 |
| Dion Lewis | 12 | 34 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Marcus Mariota | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Davis | 4 | 6 | 49 | 0 |
| Tajae Sharpe | 3 | 4 | 30 | 0 |
| Taywan Taylor | 3 | 5 | 30 | 0 |
| Dion Lewis | 3 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
| Darius Jennings | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Luke Stocker | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Nick Williams | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Derrick Henry | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonnu Smith | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 10/19 | 82 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeSean McCoy | 24 | 85 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Chris Ivory | 14 | 43 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Josh Allen | 4 | 19 | 4.8 | 1 |
| Ray-Ray McCloud | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeSean McCoy | 2 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Zay Jones | 3 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Charles Clay | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Kelvin Benjamin | 1 | 5 | 11 | 0 |
| Jason Croom | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Ray-Ray McCloud | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Steven Hauschka | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Taiwan Jones | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Andre Holmes | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
2.69%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.5%
Expected total
41.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.64
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.38