2018 · Week 5

Final

Titans

Tennessee

QB Marcus Mariota

12·13

Bills

Buffalo

QB Josh Allen

New Era Field · outdoors · a_turf · 62°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

TEN -6

Total

38

Model margin

+2.4est.

BUF perspective

Push chance

2.7%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Titans

Bills

Win probability

  • Bills
  • Titans

How each play moved the game.

Bills winsTitans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Titansedge mapBills
  • -0.029EPA / play-0.140
  • 42.6%Success rate37.8%
  • +0.023EPA / dropback-0.137
  • -0.094EPA / rush-0.143
  • 9.3%Explosive rate7.7%
  • +1.50CPOE-7.12
  • 40.0%Third-down rate32.3%
  • 53.8%Red-zone TD rate50.4%
  • 1.83Points / drive1.26
  • 1.7%Turnover rate2.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TEN lead 8–6 since 1999

BUF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45.4 points. BUF are 7-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W7TEN @ BUF10–34BUF
2022 · W2TEN @ BUF7–41BUF
2021 · W6BUF @ TEN31–34TEN
2020 · W5BUF @ TEN16–42TEN
2019 · W5BUF @ TEN14–7BUF
2015 · W5BUF @ TEN14–13BUF
2012 · W7TEN @ BUF35–34TEN
2011 · W13TEN @ BUF23–17TEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTEN–BUF
TENQ1 15:00418Turnover0–0
BUFQ1 14:291147Touchdown0–7
TENQ1 9:0338Punt0–7
BUFQ1 7:55515Punt0–7
TENQ1 5:02618Field goal3–7
BUFQ1 1:35726Punt3–7
TENQ2 12:21517Turnover3–7
BUFQ2 9:37925Turnover on downs3–7
TENQ2 5:031057Field goal6–7
BUFQ3 15:001021Punt6–7
TENQ3 9:5058Punt6–7
BUFQ3 6:5330Punt6–7
TENQ3 6:30224Turnover6–7
BUFQ3 5:46627Field goal6–10
TENQ3 1:591354Field goal9–10
BUFQ4 10:30515Turnover9–10
TENQ4 7:51617Field goal12–10
BUFQ4 4:431047Field goal12–13

Box score

Individual performances

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Marcus Mariota14/2612901

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Derrick Henry11565.10
Dion Lewis12342.80
Marcus Mariota2105.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Corey Davis46490
Tajae Sharpe34300
Taywan Taylor35300
Dion Lewis34140
Darius Jennings1160
Luke Stocker0100
Nick Williams0200
Derrick Henry0100
Jonnu Smith0100

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Allen10/198201

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LeSean McCoy24853.50
Chris Ivory14433.10
Josh Allen4194.81
Ray-Ray McCloud1-3-3.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
LeSean McCoy23230
Zay Jones34200
Charles Clay11120
Kelvin Benjamin15110
Jason Croom2290
Ray-Ray McCloud1170
Steven Hauschka0100
Taiwan Jones0100
Andre Holmes0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -64.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%

Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Titans.

Half-point at risk

2.69%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.5%

Expected total

41.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.64
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.38