2021 · Week 6

Final

Bills

Buffalo

QB Josh Allen

31·34

Titans

Tennessee

QB Ryan Tannehill

Nissan Stadium · outdoors · grass · 66°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

BUF -6

Total

53.5

Model margin

-0.0est.

TEN perspective

Push chance

2.9%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bills

Titans

Win probability

  • Titans
  • Bills

How each play moved the game.

Titans winsBills wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Billsedge mapTitans
  • +0.091EPA / play+0.025
  • 47.4%Success rate44.7%
  • +0.164EPA / dropback+0.092
  • -0.048EPA / rush-0.054
  • 8.5%Explosive rate7.8%
  • +1.95CPOE+2.33
  • 47.6%Third-down rate43.8%
  • 62.4%Red-zone TD rate66.6%
  • 2.52Points / drive2.15
  • 1.8%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TEN lead 8–6 since 1999

BUF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45.4 points. TEN are 7-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W7TEN @ BUF10–34BUF
2022 · W2TEN @ BUF7–41BUF
2020 · W5BUF @ TEN16–42TEN
2019 · W5BUF @ TEN14–7BUF
2018 · W5TEN @ BUF12–13BUF
2015 · W5BUF @ TEN14–13BUF
2012 · W7TEN @ BUF35–34TEN
2011 · W13TEN @ BUF23–17TEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBUF–TEN
TENQ1 15:00612Punt0–0
BUFQ1 12:261274Field goal3–0
TENQ1 6:0734Punt3–0
BUFQ1 5:043-8Punt3–0
TENQ1 2:5448Turnover3–0
BUFQ1 1:031141Field goal6–0
TENQ2 11:36176Touchdown6–7
BUFQ2 11:20757Touchdown13–7
TENQ2 7:54654Field goal13–10
BUFQ2 5:0410Turnover13–10
TENQ2 4:54211Touchdown13–17
BUFQ2 4:231080Touchdown20–17
TENQ2 0:4016End of half20–17
BUFQ3 15:00848Field goal23–17
TENQ3 10:491267Touchdown23–24
BUFQ3 4:231041Touchdown31–24
TENQ3 0:27955Field goal31–27
BUFQ4 9:4565Punt31–27
TENQ4 8:01870Touchdown31–34
BUFQ4 3:05879Turnover on downs31–34
TENQ4 0:2100End of half31–34

Box score

Individual performances

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Allen35/4735331

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Devin Singletary5275.40
Josh Allen9262.90
Zack Moss8243.00
Isaiah McKenzie155.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Emmanuel Sanders58910
Stefon Diggs911891
Cole Beasley79881
Dawson Knox33250
Gabe Davis22250
Devin Singletary55160
Zack Moss24150
Isaiah McKenzie1130
Tommy Sweeney1111
Jake Kumerow0100

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Tannehill18/2921601

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Derrick Henry201437.23
Ryan Tannehill231.51

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
A.J. Brown79910
Julio Jones35590
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine33270
Derrick Henry23130
Anthony Firkser11110
Geoff Swaim1280
Chester Rogers1170
Marcus Johnson0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -62.7%4.4%2.9%7.4%7.4%2.9%4.4%

Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Bills.

Half-point at risk

2.92%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

49.0%

Expected total

43.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.72
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.02