Closing spread
BUF -6
Total
53.5
Model margin
-0.0est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
2.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Titans
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.091EPA / play+0.025
- 47.4%Success rate44.7%
- +0.164EPA / dropback+0.092
- -0.048EPA / rush-0.054
- 8.5%Explosive rate7.8%
- +1.95CPOE+2.33
- 47.6%Third-down rate43.8%
- 62.4%Red-zone TD rate66.6%
- 2.52Points / drive2.15
- 1.8%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 8–6 since 1999
BUF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45.4 points. TEN are 7-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 35/47 | 353 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin Singletary | 5 | 27 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Josh Allen | 9 | 26 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Zack Moss | 8 | 24 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Isaiah McKenzie | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emmanuel Sanders | 5 | 8 | 91 | 0 |
| Stefon Diggs | 9 | 11 | 89 | 1 |
| Cole Beasley | 7 | 9 | 88 | 1 |
| Dawson Knox | 3 | 3 | 25 | 0 |
| Gabe Davis | 2 | 2 | 25 | 0 |
| Devin Singletary | 5 | 5 | 16 | 0 |
| Zack Moss | 2 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
| Isaiah McKenzie | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Tommy Sweeney | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Jake Kumerow | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 18/29 | 216 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | 20 | 143 | 7.2 | 3 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Brown | 7 | 9 | 91 | 0 |
| Julio Jones | 3 | 5 | 59 | 0 |
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | 3 | 3 | 27 | 0 |
| Derrick Henry | 2 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Anthony Firkser | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Geoff Swaim | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Chester Rogers | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Marcus Johnson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
2.92%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.0%
Expected total
43.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.72
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.02