2015 · Week 5

Final

Bills

Buffalo

QB Tyrod Taylor

14·13

Titans

Tennessee

QB Marcus Mariota

Nissan Stadium · outdoors · grass · 67°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

TEN -1

Total

43

Model margin

+0.8est.

TEN perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bills

Titans

Win probability

  • Titans
  • Bills

How each play moved the game.

Titans winsBills wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Billsedge mapTitans
  • +0.025EPA / play-0.103
  • 40.7%Success rate41.1%
  • +0.074EPA / dropback-0.050
  • -0.039EPA / rush-0.200
  • 10.5%Explosive rate7.8%
  • +2.97CPOE+0.30
  • 38.1%Third-down rate32.1%
  • 65.3%Red-zone TD rate67.5%
  • 1.83Points / drive1.32
  • 1.5%Turnover rate3.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TEN lead 8–6 since 1999

BUF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45.4 points. TEN are 7-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W7TEN @ BUF10–34BUF
2022 · W2TEN @ BUF7–41BUF
2021 · W6BUF @ TEN31–34TEN
2020 · W5BUF @ TEN16–42TEN
2019 · W5BUF @ TEN14–7BUF
2018 · W5TEN @ BUF12–13BUF
2012 · W7TEN @ BUF35–34TEN
2011 · W13TEN @ BUF23–17TEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBUF–TEN
TENQ1 15:00746Punt0–0
BUFQ1 10:4036Punt0–0
TENQ1 9:4762Punt0–0
BUFQ1 7:4531Punt0–0
TENQ1 6:481372Field goal0–3
BUFQ2 14:0932Punt0–3
TENQ2 12:18733Punt0–3
BUFQ2 7:49512Punt0–3
TENQ2 4:2438Punt0–3
BUFQ2 2:52930Punt0–3
TENQ2 0:5439End of half0–3
BUFQ3 15:0055Punt0–3
TENQ3 11:5631Punt0–3
TENQ3 11:06739Touchdown0–10
BUFQ3 6:511080Touchdown7–10
TENQ3 1:201364Field goal7–13
BUFQ4 9:36980Touchdown14–13
TENQ4 5:2562Punt14–13
BUFQ4 2:483-4Punt14–13
TENQ4 1:4110Turnover14–13
BUFQ4 1:3200End of half14–13

Box score

Individual performances

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tyrod Taylor10/1710910
Chris Hogan1/1400

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tyrod Taylor8769.51
Dan Herron9283.10
Anthony Dixon7192.70
Cierre Wood231.50
Percy Harvin1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Chris Hogan33521
Marquise Goodwin22240
Anthony Dixon33200
Charles Clay1370
Robert Woods1260
Tyrod Taylor1140
Percy Harvin0400

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Marcus Mariota21/3218701

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Marcus Mariota5479.40
Dexter McCluster8202.50
Bishop Sankey7202.90
Antonio Andrews791.31
Kendall Wright111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Antonio Andrews34450
Justin Hunter46380
Delanie Walker46360
Kendall Wright36290
Bishop Sankey33230
Harry Douglas23170
Craig Stevens1210
Anthony Fasano0100
Dexter McCluster11-20

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +14.3%2.8%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Bills.

Half-point at risk

2.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.3%

Expected total

43.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.22
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+0.83