Closing spread
TEN -1
Total
43
Model margin
+0.8est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Titans
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.025EPA / play-0.103
- 40.7%Success rate41.1%
- +0.074EPA / dropback-0.050
- -0.039EPA / rush-0.200
- 10.5%Explosive rate7.8%
- +2.97CPOE+0.30
- 38.1%Third-down rate32.1%
- 65.3%Red-zone TD rate67.5%
- 1.83Points / drive1.32
- 1.5%Turnover rate3.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 8–6 since 1999
BUF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45.4 points. TEN are 7-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrod Taylor | 10/17 | 109 | 1 | 0 |
| Chris Hogan | 1/1 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrod Taylor | 8 | 76 | 9.5 | 1 |
| Dan Herron | 9 | 28 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Anthony Dixon | 7 | 19 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Cierre Wood | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Percy Harvin | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Hogan | 3 | 3 | 52 | 1 |
| Marquise Goodwin | 2 | 2 | 24 | 0 |
| Anthony Dixon | 3 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Charles Clay | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Robert Woods | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Tyrod Taylor | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Percy Harvin | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Mariota | 21/32 | 187 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Mariota | 5 | 47 | 9.4 | 0 |
| Dexter McCluster | 8 | 20 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Bishop Sankey | 7 | 20 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Antonio Andrews | 7 | 9 | 1.3 | 1 |
| Kendall Wright | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Andrews | 3 | 4 | 45 | 0 |
| Justin Hunter | 4 | 6 | 38 | 0 |
| Delanie Walker | 4 | 6 | 36 | 0 |
| Kendall Wright | 3 | 6 | 29 | 0 |
| Bishop Sankey | 3 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Harry Douglas | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Craig Stevens | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Anthony Fasano | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Dexter McCluster | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.3%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.22
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+0.83