1999 · WC
Final
Jack Kent Cooke Stadium · outdoors · grass · 45°F · wind 10mph
Closing spread
WAS -6
Total
46
Model margin
+4.5est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
3.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Commanders
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.057EPA / play+0.098
- 38.8%Success rate44.4%
- +0.024EPA / dropback+0.143
- -0.222EPA / rush+0.036
- 8.4%Explosive rate10.8%
- 35.5%Third-down rate36.2%
- 61.8%Red-zone TD rate68.3%
- 1.19Points / drive1.78
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.2%
- -0.055EPA / play allowed-0.001
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DET lead 9–6 since 1999
Meetings average 46.5 points. WAS are 6-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gus Frerotte | 21/46 | 251 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gus Frerotte | 2 | 16 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Ron Rivers | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Herman Moore | 3 | 3 | 69 | 0 |
| Germane Crowell | 5 | 11 | 41 | 0 |
| Brian Stablein | 3 | 3 | 32 | 0 |
| Johnnie Morton | 2 | 10 | 29 | 0 |
| Sedrick Irvin | 2 | 2 | 27 | 0 |
| Ron Rivers | 4 | 4 | 24 | 1 |
| David Sloan | 1 | 5 | 24 | 0 |
| Iheanyi Uwaezuoke | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Johnson | 15/31 | 174 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Davis | 15 | 119 | 7.9 | 2 |
| Brian Mitchell | 7 | 55 | 7.9 | 0 |
| Skip Hicks | 23 | 46 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Albert Connell | 2 | 4 | 35 | 1 |
| Skip Hicks | 2 | 2 | 27 | 0 |
| Michael Westbrook | 2 | 9 | 22 | 0 |
| Irving Fryar | 1 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Stephen Alexander | 1 | 4 | 12 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
3.18%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.1%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.94
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.51