1999 · WC

Final

Lions

Detroit

QB Gus Frerotte

13·27

Commanders

Washington

QB Brad Johnson

Jack Kent Cooke Stadium · outdoors · grass · 45°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

WAS -6

Total

46

Model margin

+4.5est.

WAS perspective

Push chance

3.2%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Commanders
  • Lions

How each play moved the game.

Commanders winsLions wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Lionsedge mapCommanders
  • -0.057EPA / play+0.098
  • 38.8%Success rate44.4%
  • +0.024EPA / dropback+0.143
  • -0.222EPA / rush+0.036
  • 8.4%Explosive rate10.8%
  • 35.5%Third-down rate36.2%
  • 61.8%Red-zone TD rate68.3%
  • 1.19Points / drive1.78
  • 2.0%Turnover rate2.2%
  • -0.055EPA / play allowed-0.001

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DET lead 9–6 since 1999

Meetings average 46.5 points. WAS are 6-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W10DET @ WAS44–22DET
2024 · playoffsWAS @ DET45–31WAS
2022 · W2WAS @ DET27–36DET
2020 · W10WAS @ DET27–30DET
2019 · W12DET @ WAS16–19WAS
2016 · W7WAS @ DET17–20DET
2013 · W3DET @ WAS27–20DET
2010 · W8WAS @ DET25–37DET

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDET–WAS
DETQ1 15:0034Punt0–0
WASQ1 12:471023Touchdown0–7
DETQ1 9:09623Punt0–7
WASQ1 6:04887Touchdown0–14
DETQ1 2:2835Turnover0–14
WASQ1 0:4549Field goal0–17
DETQ2 13:5035Punt0–17
WASQ2 12:43545Field goal0–20
DETQ2 9:50424Punt0–20
WASQ2 8:0938Punt0–20
DETQ2 6:153-12Punt0–20
WASQ2 4:55882Touchdown0–27
DETQ2 1:19310Turnover0–27
WASQ2 0:39521Turnover on downs0–27
DETQ2 0:04158End of half0–27
WASQ3 15:00627Turnover0–27
DETQ3 11:285-21Punt0–27
WASQ3 9:573-7Punt0–27
DETQ3 8:214-2Punt0–27
WASQ3 7:1536Punt0–27
DETQ3 5:48833Turnover on downs0–27
WASQ3 4:061879Opp touchdown6–27
DETQ4 9:2300Opp touchdown6–27
WASQ4 9:2320Turnover6–27
DETQ4 8:19841Turnover on downs6–27
WASQ4 5:3459Punt6–27
DETQ4 2:351190Touchdown13–27

Box score

Individual performances

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Gus Frerotte21/4625112

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Gus Frerotte2168.00
Ron Rivers166.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Herman Moore33690
Germane Crowell511410
Brian Stablein33320
Johnnie Morton210290
Sedrick Irvin22270
Ron Rivers44241
David Sloan15240
Iheanyi Uwaezuoke1150

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brad Johnson15/3117412

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Stephen Davis151197.92
Brian Mitchell7557.90
Skip Hicks23462.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Albert Connell24351
Skip Hicks22270
Michael Westbrook29220
Irving Fryar12170
Stephen Alexander14120

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +63.6%6.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Lions.

Half-point at risk

3.18%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

61.1%

Expected total

44.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.94
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.51