Closing spread
JAX -8
Total
37.5
Model margin
+6.0est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.116EPA / play+0.048
- 37.3%Success rate42.5%
- -0.071EPA / dropback+0.145
- -0.186EPA / rush-0.086
- 8.0%Explosive rate8.0%
- 34.2%Third-down rate40.4%
- 42.4%Red-zone TD rate46.2%
- 1.17Points / drive1.75
- 2.9%Turnover rate1.5%
- -0.102EPA / play allowed-0.127
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIA lead 6–5 since 1999
Meetings average 38.1 points. JAX are 6-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Marino | 11/25 | 95 | 1 | 2 |
| Damon Huard | 5/16 | 46 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Autry Denson | 6 | 10 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Stanley Pritchett | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
| J.J. Johnson | 8 | 9 | 1.1 | 0 |
| Damon Huard | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Dan Marino | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oronde Gadsden | 6 | 11 | 62 | 1 |
| O.J. McDuffie | 2 | 10 | 19 | 0 |
| Stanley Pritchett | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| J.J. Johnson | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Troy Drayton | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Hunter Goodwin | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Tony Martin | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Fiedler | 7/11 | 172 | 2 | 1 |
| Mark Brunell | 5/9 | 105 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Taylor | 18 | 135 | 7.5 | 1 |
| James Stewart | 11 | 62 | 5.6 | 1 |
| Chris Howard | 15 | 54 | 3.6 | 1 |
| Mark Brunell | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Smith | 5 | 8 | 136 | 2 |
| Keenan McCardell | 4 | 7 | 52 | 0 |
| Fred Taylor | 1 | 1 | 39 | 1 |
| Alvis Whitted | 1 | 1 | 38 | 1 |
| Kyle Brady | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
2.23%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
65.0%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.93
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+6.05