1999 · DIV

Final

Dolphins

Miami

QB Dan Marino

7·62

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Mark Brunell

Alltel Stadium · outdoors · grass · 57°F · wind 14mph

Closing spread

JAX -8

Total

37.5

Model margin

+6.0est.

JAX perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

Win probability

  • Jaguars
  • Dolphins

How each play moved the game.

Jaguars winsDolphins wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Dolphinsedge mapJaguars
  • -0.116EPA / play+0.048
  • 37.3%Success rate42.5%
  • -0.071EPA / dropback+0.145
  • -0.186EPA / rush-0.086
  • 8.0%Explosive rate8.0%
  • 34.2%Third-down rate40.4%
  • 42.4%Red-zone TD rate46.2%
  • 1.17Points / drive1.75
  • 2.9%Turnover rate1.5%
  • -0.102EPA / play allowed-0.127

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIA lead 6–5 since 1999

Meetings average 38.1 points. JAX are 6-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W1JAX @ MIA17–20MIA
2021 · W6MIA @ JAX20–23JAX
2020 · W3MIA @ JAX31–13MIA
2018 · W16JAX @ MIA17–7JAX
2015 · W2MIA @ JAX20–23JAX
2014 · W8MIA @ JAX27–13MIA
2012 · W15JAX @ MIA3–24MIA
2009 · W14MIA @ JAX14–10MIA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIA–JAX
JAXQ1 15:00973Touchdown0–7
MIAQ1 10:3210Turnover0–7
JAXQ1 10:12814Field goal0–10
MIAQ1 6:1937Punt0–10
JAXQ1 4:37291Touchdown0–17
MIAQ1 3:461-10Opp touchdown0–24
JAXQ1 3:2100Opp touchdown0–24
MIAQ1 3:2132Punt0–24
JAXQ1 1:35558Touchdown0–31
MIAQ2 14:483-1Punt0–31
JAXQ2 13:17321Touchdown0–38
JAXQ2 12:0500Touchdown0–38
MIAQ2 12:0530Turnover0–38
JAXQ2 11:453-2Punt0–38
MIAQ2 10:4865Punt0–38
JAXQ2 8:58638Missed field goal0–38
MIAQ2 5:1423Turnover0–38
JAXQ2 4:2220Turnover0–38
MIAQ2 3:3127Turnover0–38
JAXQ2 3:17420Field goal0–41
MIAQ2 1:511379Touchdown7–41
JAXQ2 0:0100End of half7–41
MIAQ3 15:0034Punt7–41
JAXQ3 13:22378Touchdown7–48
MIAQ3 12:03912Punt7–48
JAXQ3 8:30569Touchdown7–55
MIAQ3 6:1939Punt7–55
JAXQ3 4:4236Punt7–55
MIAQ3 2:38510Punt7–55
JAXQ3 0:31619Punt7–55
MIAQ4 10:5010Turnover7–61
JAXQ4 10:4315Touchdown7–62
MIAQ4 10:374-7Turnover7–62
JAXQ4 9:33312Turnover7–62
MIAQ4 7:5836Punt7–62
JAXQ4 5:4739Punt7–62
MIAQ4 3:2742Turnover on downs7–62
JAXQ4 3:0039Punt7–62
MIAQ4 1:0525End of half7–62

Box score

Individual performances

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Dan Marino11/259512
Damon Huard5/164600

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Autry Denson6101.70
Stanley Pritchett2105.00
J.J. Johnson891.10
Damon Huard122.00
Dan Marino100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Oronde Gadsden611621
O.J. McDuffie210190
Stanley Pritchett22170
J.J. Johnson23110
Troy Drayton1120
Hunter Goodwin0200
Tony Martin0500

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jay Fiedler7/1117221
Mark Brunell5/910520

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Fred Taylor181357.51
James Stewart11625.61
Chris Howard15543.61
Mark Brunell166.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jimmy Smith581362
Keenan McCardell47520
Fred Taylor11391
Alvis Whitted11381
Kyle Brady0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +83.3%6.2%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Dolphins.

Half-point at risk

2.23%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

65.0%

Expected total

44.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.93
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+6.05