Closing spread
STL -7
Total
52
Model margin
+2.2est.
STL perspective
Push chance
4.7%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Rams
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
STL lead 8–6 since 1999
RAMS have won 4 straight. Meetings average 53.3 points. STL are 7-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff George | 29/50 | 423 | 4 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Smith | 20 | 64 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Leroy Hoard | 7 | 24 | 3.4 | 1 |
| Jeff George | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randy Moss | 9 | 14 | 188 | 2 |
| Cris Carter | 7 | 15 | 106 | 1 |
| Jake Reed | 5 | 7 | 85 | 1 |
| Robert Smith | 7 | 8 | 32 | 0 |
| Andrew Glover | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Carlester Crumpler | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Matt Hatchette | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Andrew Jordan | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
4.70%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.0%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.93
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+2.19
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.