Closing spread
STL -7
Total
52
Model margin
+2.2est.
STL perspective
Push chance
4.7%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Rams
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
STL lead 8–6 since 1999
RAMS have won 4 straight. Meetings average 53.3 points. STL are 7-7 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | MIN–STL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | Q1 15:00 | 10 | 65 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| LA | Q1 9:23 | 1 | 77 | Touchdown | 3–7 |
| MIN | Q1 9:02 | 5 | 15 | Punt | 3–7 |
| LA | Q1 6:14 | 4 | 82 | Touchdown | 3–14 |
| MIN | Q1 4:19 | 11 | 23 | Punt | 3–14 |
| LA | Q2 13:44 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 3–14 |
| MIN | Q2 13:35 | 8 | 96 | Touchdown | 10–14 |
| LA | Q2 9:53 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 10–14 |
| MIN | Q2 7:55 | 3 | 1 | Turnover | 10–14 |
| LA | Q2 6:28 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 10–14 |
| MIN | Q2 6:23 | 7 | 53 | Touchdown | 17–14 |
| LA | Q2 2:40 | 7 | 30 | Punt | 17–14 |
| MIN | Q2 0:52 | 1 | 8 | End of half | 17–20 |
| LA | Q3 15:00 | 0 | 0 | Touchdown | 17–21 |
| MIN | Q3 14:42 | 3 | -3 | Punt | 17–21 |
| LA | Q3 13:27 | 10 | 51 | Touchdown | 17–28 |
| MIN | Q3 8:28 | 0 | 0 | Missed field goal | 17–28 |
| LA | Q3 8:18 | 4 | 18 | Missed field goal | 17–28 |
| MIN | Q3 5:42 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 17–28 |
| LA | Q3 4:45 | 8 | 71 | Touchdown | 17–35 |
| MIN | Q3 0:22 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 17–35 |
| LA | Q3 0:09 | 4 | 23 | Touchdown | 17–42 |
| MIN | Q4 13:36 | 3 | -6 | Punt | 17–42 |
| LA | Q4 12:14 | 8 | 60 | Touchdown | 17–49 |
| MIN | Q4 8:13 | 7 | 75 | Touchdown | 25–49 |
| LA | Q4 4:56 | 0 | 0 | Touchdown | 25–49 |
| MIN | Q4 4:52 | 4 | 63 | Touchdown | 31–49 |
| LA | Q4 3:48 | 4 | -8 | Punt | 31–49 |
| MIN | Q4 2:40 | 17 | 85 | Touchdown | 37–49 |
| LA | Q4 0:31 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 37–49 |
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff George | 29/50 | 423 | 4 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Smith | 20 | 64 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Leroy Hoard | 7 | 24 | 3.4 | 1 |
| Jeff George | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randy Moss | 9 | 14 | 188 | 2 |
| Cris Carter | 7 | 15 | 106 | 1 |
| Jake Reed | 5 | 7 | 85 | 1 |
| Robert Smith | 7 | 8 | 32 | 0 |
| Andrew Glover | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Carlester Crumpler | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Matt Hatchette | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Andrew Jordan | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
4.70%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.0%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.93
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+2.19
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.