1999 · DIV

Final

Commanders

Washington

QB Brad Johnson

13·14

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Shaun King

Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 66°F · wind 12mph

Closing spread

TB -4.5

Total

38

Model margin

+2.2est.

TB perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Buccaneers
  • Commanders

How each play moved the game.

Buccaneers winsCommanders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Commandersedge mapBuccaneers
  • +0.098EPA / play-0.149
  • 44.4%Success rate35.1%
  • +0.143EPA / dropback-0.110
  • +0.036EPA / rush-0.193
  • 10.8%Explosive rate7.7%
  • 36.2%Third-down rate35.3%
  • 68.3%Red-zone TD rate37.2%
  • 1.78Points / drive1.03
  • 2.2%Turnover rate3.3%
  • -0.001EPA / play allowed-0.164

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 9–9 since 1999

Meetings average 40.5 points. TB are 7-9-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · playoffsWAS @ TB23–20WAS
2024 · W1WAS @ TB20–37TB
2021 · W10TB @ WAS19–29WAS
2020 · playoffsTB @ WAS31–23TB
2018 · W10WAS @ TB16–3WAS
2015 · W7TB @ WAS30–31WAS
2014 · W11TB @ WAS27–7TB
2012 · W4WAS @ TB24–22WAS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultWAS–TB
TBQ1 15:0030Punt0–0
WASQ1 13:4837Punt0–0
TBQ1 12:1239Punt0–0
WASQ1 10:3034Punt0–0
TBQ1 8:30519Punt0–0
WASQ1 5:55949Punt0–0
TBQ1 0:4539Punt0–0
WASQ2 13:4338Punt0–0
TBQ2 12:0031Punt0–0
WASQ2 10:22743Field goal3–0
TBQ2 5:37613Punt3–0
WASQ2 2:49620Punt3–0
TBQ2 0:19318End of half9–0
WASQ3 15:0000Touchdown10–0
TBQ3 14:413-2Punt10–0
WASQ3 13:2436Punt10–0
TBQ3 11:58432Turnover10–0
WASQ3 9:5136Field goal13–0
TBQ3 8:1037Punt13–0
WASQ3 5:502-3Turnover13–0
TBQ3 5:06742Touchdown13–7
WASQ3 2:0333Punt13–7
TBQ3 0:5532Punt13–7
WASQ4 14:534-11Turnover13–7
TBQ4 13:211024Touchdown13–14
WASQ4 7:2946Punt13–14
TBQ4 5:3530Punt13–14
WASQ4 3:05829Turnover on downs13–14
TBQ4 1:08317End of half13–14

Box score

Individual performances

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brad Johnson20/3214901

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Stephen Davis17372.20
Brian Mitchell111.00
James Thrash111.00
Skip Hicks100.00
Brad Johnson100.00
Michael Westbrook100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Albert Connell47590
Irving Fryar46300
Stephen Davis33260
Skip Hicks22170
Stephen Alexander1440
Michael Westbrook1440
Brian Mitchell2210

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Shaun King15/3215711

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Warrick Dunn11181.60
Shaun King122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Bert Emanuel22470
Warrick Dunn47320
Dave Moore24320
Jacquez Green29250
Karl Williams1130
John Davis1111
Darnell McDonald0400

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +4.54.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Commanders.

Half-point at risk

1.93%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.1%

Expected total

43.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.11
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.30
  • Rest differential+0.48
  • Expected margin+2.24