1999 · DIV
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 66°F · wind 12mph
Closing spread
TB -4.5
Total
38
Model margin
+2.2est.
TB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.098EPA / play-0.149
- 44.4%Success rate35.1%
- +0.143EPA / dropback-0.110
- +0.036EPA / rush-0.193
- 10.8%Explosive rate7.7%
- 36.2%Third-down rate35.3%
- 68.3%Red-zone TD rate37.2%
- 1.78Points / drive1.03
- 2.2%Turnover rate3.3%
- -0.001EPA / play allowed-0.164
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 9–9 since 1999
Meetings average 40.5 points. TB are 7-9-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Johnson | 20/32 | 149 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Davis | 17 | 37 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Brian Mitchell | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| James Thrash | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Skip Hicks | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Brad Johnson | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Michael Westbrook | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Albert Connell | 4 | 7 | 59 | 0 |
| Irving Fryar | 4 | 6 | 30 | 0 |
| Stephen Davis | 3 | 3 | 26 | 0 |
| Skip Hicks | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Stephen Alexander | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 |
| Michael Westbrook | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 |
| Brian Mitchell | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun King | 15/32 | 157 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warrick Dunn | 11 | 18 | 1.6 | 0 |
| Shaun King | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bert Emanuel | 2 | 2 | 47 | 0 |
| Warrick Dunn | 4 | 7 | 32 | 0 |
| Dave Moore | 2 | 4 | 32 | 0 |
| Jacquez Green | 2 | 9 | 25 | 0 |
| Karl Williams | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| John Davis | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Darnell McDonald | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
1.93%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.1%
Expected total
43.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.11
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+0.30
- Rest differential+0.48
- Expected margin+2.24