1999 · CON
Final
TWA Dome · dome · astroturf
Closing spread
STL -14
Total
46
Model margin
+1.6est.
STL perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Rams
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
STL lead 11–7 since 1999
Meetings average 47.2 points. STL are 11-6-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | TB–STL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA | Q1 15:00 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| TB | Q1 14:45 | 5 | 8 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| LA | Q1 12:22 | 15 | 73 | Field goal | 3–3 |
| TB | Q1 4:17 | 4 | 24 | Punt | 3–3 |
| LA | Q1 2:36 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 3–3 |
| TB | Q1 0:42 | 2 | 1 | Safety | 3–5 |
| LA | Q2 14:55 | 7 | 34 | Missed field goal | 3–5 |
| TB | Q2 10:25 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 3–5 |
| LA | Q2 8:50 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 3–5 |
| TB | Q2 7:41 | 6 | 7 | Punt | 3–5 |
| LA | Q2 3:10 | 5 | 24 | Punt | 3–5 |
| TB | Q2 1:13 | 4 | 27 | Turnover | 3–5 |
| LA | Q2 0:11 | 2 | 20 | End of half | 3–5 |
| TB | Q3 15:00 | 8 | 53 | Field goal | 6–5 |
| LA | Q3 10:28 | 14 | 83 | Turnover | 6–5 |
| TB | Q3 3:50 | 5 | 23 | Punt | 6–5 |
| LA | Q3 0:16 | 6 | 18 | Turnover | 6–5 |
| TB | Q4 12:18 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 6–5 |
| LA | Q4 10:53 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 6–5 |
| TB | Q4 9:20 | 3 | -1 | Turnover | 6–5 |
| LA | Q4 8:01 | 7 | 42 | Touchdown | 6–11 |
| TB | Q4 4:44 | 12 | 42 | Turnover on downs | 6–11 |
| LA | Q4 0:34 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 6–11 |
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun King | 13/29 | 163 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warrick Dunn | 9 | 35 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Shaun King | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacquez Green | 4 | 7 | 59 | 0 |
| Warrick Dunn | 4 | 5 | 37 | 0 |
| Karl Williams | 2 | 4 | 28 | 0 |
| Bert Emanuel | 1 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Dave Moore | 1 | 4 | 8 | 0 |
| Darnell McDonald | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
2.50%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.3%
Expected total
42.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.61
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-0.30
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+1.58
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.