1999 · CON
Final
TWA Dome · dome · astroturf
Closing spread
STL -14
Total
46
Model margin
+1.6est.
STL perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Rams
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
STL lead 11–7 since 1999
Meetings average 47.2 points. STL are 11-6-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun King | 13/29 | 163 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warrick Dunn | 9 | 35 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Shaun King | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacquez Green | 4 | 7 | 59 | 0 |
| Warrick Dunn | 4 | 5 | 37 | 0 |
| Karl Williams | 2 | 4 | 28 | 0 |
| Bert Emanuel | 1 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Dave Moore | 1 | 4 | 8 | 0 |
| Darnell McDonald | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
2.50%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.3%
Expected total
42.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.61
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-0.30
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+1.58
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.