1999 · CON · Division

Final

Titans

Tennessee

QB Steve McNair

33·14

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Mark Brunell

Alltel Stadium · outdoors · grass · 68°F · wind 12mph

Closing spread

JAX -7

Total

39.5

Model margin

+3.4est.

JAX perspective

Push chance

4.8%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Jaguars
  • Titans

How each play moved the game.

Jaguars winsTitans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Titansedge mapJaguars
  • +0.007EPA / play+0.048
  • 40.1%Success rate42.5%
  • +0.067EPA / dropback+0.145
  • -0.083EPA / rush-0.086
  • 8.5%Explosive rate8.0%
  • 39.0%Third-down rate40.4%
  • 58.0%Red-zone TD rate46.2%
  • 1.52Points / drive1.75
  • 2.1%Turnover rate1.5%
  • -0.042EPA / play allowed-0.127

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TEN lead 32–23 since 1999

JAX have won 4 straight. Meetings average 40.4 points. JAX are 25-28-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18TEN @ JAX7–41JAX
2025 · W13JAX @ TEN25–3JAX
2024 · W17TEN @ JAX13–20JAX
2024 · W14JAX @ TEN10–6JAX
2023 · W18JAX @ TEN20–28TEN
2023 · W11TEN @ JAX14–34JAX
2022 · W18TEN @ JAX16–20JAX
2022 · W14JAX @ TEN36–22JAX

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTEN–JAX
TENQ1 15:00311Punt0–0
JAXQ1 13:19562Touchdown0–7
TENQ1 11:201044Touchdown7–7
JAXQ1 5:30521Punt7–7
TENQ1 2:33951Turnover7–7
JAXQ2 13:211068Turnover7–7
TENQ2 8:1036Punt7–7
JAXQ2 6:34556Touchdown7–14
TENQ2 4:36516Punt7–14
TENQ2 1:3433Field goal10–14
JAXQ2 0:201-1End of half10–14
JAXQ3 15:00519Punt10–14
TENQ3 12:33733Touchdown17–14
JAXQ3 9:2433Turnover17–14
TENQ3 9:02534Turnover17–14
JAXQ3 6:012-1Safety25–14
TENQ3 5:1300Touchdown26–14
JAXQ3 4:56929Turnover on downs26–14
TENQ3 0:3133Punt26–14
JAXQ4 14:4249Punt26–14
TENQ4 13:4929Turnover26–14
JAXQ4 13:375-3Turnover26–14
JAXQ4 11:20737Turnover26–14
TENQ4 9:12461Touchdown33–14
JAXQ4 6:59747Turnover on downs33–14
TENQ4 4:52520Punt33–14
JAXQ4 1:54214Turnover33–14
TENQ4 1:222-2End of half33–14

Box score

Individual performances

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Steve McNair14/2311211

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Steve McNair99110.12
Eddie George25863.40

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jackie Harris34330
Isaac Byrd22190
Eddie George34190
Yancey Thigpen24161
Kevin Dyson12120
Frank Wycheck22120
Derrick Mason0200
Chris Sanders0200

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mark Brunell19/3822612

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Fred Taylor191105.80
James Stewart33511.71
Mark Brunell1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jimmy Smith516920
Keenan McCardell69670
Kyle Brady56441
Fred Taylor23160
Damon Jones1270
Alvis Whitted0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +73.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Titans.

Half-point at risk

4.82%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.2%

Expected total

45.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.75
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+3.39