Closing spread
JAX -7
Total
39.5
Model margin
+3.4est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
4.8%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.007EPA / play+0.048
- 40.1%Success rate42.5%
- +0.067EPA / dropback+0.145
- -0.083EPA / rush-0.086
- 8.5%Explosive rate8.0%
- 39.0%Third-down rate40.4%
- 58.0%Red-zone TD rate46.2%
- 1.52Points / drive1.75
- 2.1%Turnover rate1.5%
- -0.042EPA / play allowed-0.127
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 32–23 since 1999
JAX have won 4 straight. Meetings average 40.4 points. JAX are 25-28-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve McNair | 14/23 | 112 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve McNair | 9 | 91 | 10.1 | 2 |
| Eddie George | 25 | 86 | 3.4 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackie Harris | 3 | 4 | 33 | 0 |
| Isaac Byrd | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Eddie George | 3 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| Yancey Thigpen | 2 | 4 | 16 | 1 |
| Kevin Dyson | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Frank Wycheck | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Derrick Mason | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Chris Sanders | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Brunell | 19/38 | 226 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Taylor | 19 | 110 | 5.8 | 0 |
| James Stewart | 3 | 35 | 11.7 | 1 |
| Mark Brunell | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Smith | 5 | 16 | 92 | 0 |
| Keenan McCardell | 6 | 9 | 67 | 0 |
| Kyle Brady | 5 | 6 | 44 | 1 |
| Fred Taylor | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Damon Jones | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Alvis Whitted | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
4.82%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.2%
Expected total
45.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.75
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+3.39