2000 · Week 1 · Division

Final

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Jake Plummer

16·21

Giants

New York

QB Kerry Collins

Giants Stadium · outdoors · grass · 80°F · wind 3mph

Closing spread

NYG -6.5

Total

40

Model margin

+7.4est.

NYG perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Giants
  • Cardinals

How each play moved the game.

Giants winsCardinals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cardinalsedge mapGiants
  • -0.126EPA / play+0.016
  • 39.0%Success rate40.1%
  • -0.066EPA / dropback+0.137
  • -0.243EPA / rush-0.130
  • 7.4%Explosive rate8.7%
  • 36.7%Third-down rate39.9%
  • 39.7%Red-zone TD rate67.6%
  • 1.04Points / drive1.73
  • 4.0%Turnover rate2.1%
  • +0.104EPA / play allowed-0.065

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 9–9 since 1999

NYG have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41.9 points. NYG are 6-12 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W4ARI @ NYG24–36NYG
2023 · W2NYG @ ARI31–28NYG
2020 · W14ARI @ NYG26–7ARI
2019 · W7ARI @ NYG27–21ARI
2017 · W16NYG @ ARI0–23ARI
2014 · W2ARI @ NYG25–14ARI
2011 · W4NYG @ ARI31–27NYG
2009 · W7ARI @ NYG24–17ARI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultARI–NYG
ARIQ1 15:0032Punt0–0
NYGQ1 13:40839Punt0–0
ARIQ1 9:59929Punt0–0
NYGQ1 5:101171Touchdown0–7
ARIQ1 0:0036Punt0–7
NYGQ2 12:553-1Punt0–7
ARIQ2 11:153-1Punt0–7
NYGQ2 10:11289Touchdown0–14
ARIQ2 9:311158Turnover0–14
NYGQ2 3:52753Turnover0–14
ARIQ2 1:04534Turnover0–14
NYGQ2 0:3230Punt0–14
ARIQ2 0:0710Turnover0–14
NYGQ3 15:0037Punt0–14
ARIQ3 12:5837Punt0–14
NYGQ3 11:1732Punt0–14
ARIQ3 9:4834Turnover0–14
NYGQ3 8:18536Turnover0–14
ARIQ3 5:281279Field goal3–14
NYGQ3 0:001582Touchdown3–21
ARIQ4 7:2846Turnover on downs3–21
NYGQ4 6:15618Punt3–21
ARIQ4 3:34784Touchdown10–21
NYGQ4 1:5500Touchdown10–21
ARIQ4 1:55947Touchdown16–21
NYGQ4 0:321-1End of half16–21

Box score

Individual performances

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jake Plummer28/4931823

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jake Plummer4184.50
Thomas Jones12161.30
Michael Pittman492.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
David Boston9111282
Frank Sanders513780
Michael Pittman66710
Thomas Jones46180
MarTay Jenkins16130
Mac Cody1180
Terry Hardy0100

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kerry Collins17/2517201

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tiki Barber1314411.12
Ron Dayne23783.41
Kerry Collins510.20

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Ike Hilliard34620
Greg Comella56420
Amani Toomer45350
Tiki Barber35250
Dan Campbell11100
Joe Jurevicius0200
Ron Dayne11-20

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +6.53.0%5.8%7.2%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.3%2.6%

Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Cardinals.

Half-point at risk

4.99%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

68.3%

Expected total

42.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.81
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+7.37