Closing spread
NYG -6.5
Total
40
Model margin
+7.4est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Giants
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.126EPA / play+0.016
- 39.0%Success rate40.1%
- -0.066EPA / dropback+0.137
- -0.243EPA / rush-0.130
- 7.4%Explosive rate8.7%
- 36.7%Third-down rate39.9%
- 39.7%Red-zone TD rate67.6%
- 1.04Points / drive1.73
- 4.0%Turnover rate2.1%
- +0.104EPA / play allowed-0.065
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ARI lead 9–8 since 1999
Meetings average 40.8 points. NYG are 5-12 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Plummer | 28/49 | 318 | 2 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Plummer | 4 | 18 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Thomas Jones | 12 | 16 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Michael Pittman | 4 | 9 | 2.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Boston | 9 | 11 | 128 | 2 |
| Frank Sanders | 5 | 13 | 78 | 0 |
| Michael Pittman | 6 | 6 | 71 | 0 |
| Thomas Jones | 4 | 6 | 18 | 0 |
| MarTay Jenkins | 1 | 6 | 13 | 0 |
| Mac Cody | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Terry Hardy | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerry Collins | 17/25 | 172 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tiki Barber | 13 | 144 | 11.1 | 2 |
| Ron Dayne | 23 | 78 | 3.4 | 1 |
| Kerry Collins | 5 | 1 | 0.2 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ike Hilliard | 3 | 4 | 62 | 0 |
| Greg Comella | 5 | 6 | 42 | 0 |
| Amani Toomer | 4 | 5 | 35 | 0 |
| Tiki Barber | 3 | 5 | 25 | 0 |
| Dan Campbell | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Joe Jurevicius | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Ron Dayne | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
4.99%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
68.3%
Expected total
42.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.81
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+7.37