Closing spread
BAL -2.5
Total
37
Model margin
-2.6est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Steelers
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.056EPA / play-0.044
- 40.2%Success rate38.6%
- -0.061EPA / dropback-0.014
- -0.052EPA / rush-0.076
- 8.4%Explosive rate8.9%
- 40.7%Third-down rate37.4%
- 36.0%Red-zone TD rate49.8%
- 1.45Points / drive1.37
- 2.3%Turnover rate1.6%
- -0.217EPA / play allowed-0.119
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 33–26 since 1999
PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39.4 points. PIT are 30-26-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Banks | 18/32 | 199 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Priest Holmes | 27 | 119 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Jamal Lewis | 5 | 16 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Tony Banks | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Obafemi Ayanbadejo | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Qadry Ismail | 7 | 11 | 102 | 1 |
| Travis Taylor | 4 | 7 | 50 | 0 |
| Priest Holmes | 4 | 4 | 32 | 0 |
| Obafemi Ayanbadejo | 2 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Ben Coates | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Shannon Sharpe | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kent Graham | 17/38 | 199 | 0 | 0 |
| Kordell Stewart | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richard Huntley | 7 | 31 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Jerome Bettis | 9 | 8 | 0.9 | 0 |
| Kordell Stewart | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Troy Edwards | 1 | -9 | -9.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Plaxico Burress | 4 | 9 | 77 | 0 |
| Bobby Shaw | 4 | 5 | 49 | 0 |
| Mark Bruener | 2 | 4 | 27 | 0 |
| Hines Ward | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Richard Huntley | 2 | 4 | 12 | 0 |
| Jerome Bettis | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Troy Edwards | 2 | 6 | 7 | 0 |
| Cory Geason | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Malcolm Johnson | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
2.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
42.0%
Expected total
40.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.32
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-2.88
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-2.64