2000 · Week 1 · Division

Final

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Tony Banks

16·0

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Kent Graham

Three Rivers Stadium · outdoors · astroturf · 74°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

BAL -2.5

Total

37

Model margin

-2.6est.

PIT perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Steelers
  • Ravens

How each play moved the game.

Steelers winsRavens wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ravensedge mapSteelers
  • -0.056EPA / play-0.044
  • 40.2%Success rate38.6%
  • -0.061EPA / dropback-0.014
  • -0.052EPA / rush-0.076
  • 8.4%Explosive rate8.9%
  • 40.7%Third-down rate37.4%
  • 36.0%Red-zone TD rate49.8%
  • 1.45Points / drive1.37
  • 2.3%Turnover rate1.6%
  • -0.217EPA / play allowed-0.119

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 33–26 since 1999

PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39.4 points. PIT are 30-26-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18BAL @ PIT24–26PIT
2025 · W14PIT @ BAL27–22PIT
2024 · playoffsPIT @ BAL14–28BAL
2024 · W16PIT @ BAL17–34BAL
2024 · W11BAL @ PIT16–18PIT
2023 · W18PIT @ BAL17–10PIT
2023 · W5BAL @ PIT10–17PIT
2022 · W17PIT @ BAL16–13PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBAL–PIT
PITQ1 15:0036Punt0–0
BALQ1 13:16826Punt0–0
PITQ1 8:281-6Turnover0–0
BALQ1 8:2138Field goal3–0
PITQ1 6:503-2Punt3–0
BALQ1 4:13153Touchdown10–0
PITQ1 3:5834Punt10–0
BALQ1 2:58522Punt10–0
PITQ2 14:52729Punt10–0
BALQ2 11:07642Punt10–0
PITQ2 8:4038Punt10–0
BALQ2 6:571466Field goal13–0
BALQ3 15:00736Field goal16–0
PITQ3 11:31753Missed field goal16–0
BALQ3 7:57619Punt16–0
PITQ3 5:1730Punt16–0
BALQ3 4:09824Punt16–0
PITQ4 14:471688Turnover on downs16–0
BALQ4 7:39833Punt16–0
PITQ4 3:21723Turnover on downs16–0
BALQ4 1:5037Punt16–0
PITQ4 0:36520End of half16–0

Box score

Individual performances

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tony Banks18/3219910

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Priest Holmes271194.40
Jamal Lewis5163.20
Tony Banks252.50
Obafemi Ayanbadejo200.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Qadry Ismail7111021
Travis Taylor47500
Priest Holmes44320
Obafemi Ayanbadejo23100
Ben Coates1250
Shannon Sharpe0300

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kent Graham17/3819900
Kordell Stewart0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Richard Huntley7314.40
Jerome Bettis980.90
Kordell Stewart100.00
Troy Edwards1-9-9.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Plaxico Burress49770
Bobby Shaw45490
Mark Bruener24270
Hines Ward22200
Richard Huntley24120
Jerome Bettis1270
Troy Edwards2670
Cory Geason0100
Malcolm Johnson0400

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -2.52.7%3.0%4.8%3.1%7.5%7.0%2.7%4.0%

Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Ravens.

Half-point at risk

2.13%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

42.0%

Expected total

40.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.32
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment-2.88
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-2.64