2000 · Week 1
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 80°F · wind 0mph
Closing spread
WAS -10.5
Total
47.5
Model margin
+4.2est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Commanders
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.057EPA / play-0.027
- 40.9%Success rate41.1%
- -0.026EPA / dropback+0.058
- -0.120EPA / rush-0.148
- 6.7%Explosive rate8.1%
- 39.7%Third-down rate39.0%
- 37.3%Red-zone TD rate57.1%
- 1.31Points / drive1.30
- 3.1%Turnover rate2.9%
- -0.020EPA / play allowed-0.093
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
WAS lead 8–7 since 1999
WAS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.5 points. WAS are 8-7 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | CAR–WAS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WAS | Q1 15:00 | 12 | 79 | Touchdown | 6–7 |
| CAR | Q1 7:51 | 0 | 0 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| WAS | Q1 7:36 | 5 | 18 | Punt | 7–7 |
| CAR | Q1 5:08 | 6 | 55 | Field goal | 10–7 |
| WAS | Q1 1:31 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 10–7 |
| CAR | Q1 0:27 | 8 | 27 | Punt | 10–7 |
| WAS | Q2 12:23 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 10–7 |
| CAR | Q2 11:24 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 10–7 |
| WAS | Q2 9:51 | 7 | 43 | Turnover on downs | 10–7 |
| CAR | Q2 6:59 | 8 | 75 | Missed field goal | 10–7 |
| WAS | Q2 2:30 | 6 | 30 | Punt | 10–7 |
| CAR | Q2 1:12 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 10–7 |
| WAS | Q2 0:13 | 2 | 20 | End of half | 10–7 |
| CAR | Q3 15:00 | 8 | 1 | Turnover | 10–7 |
| WAS | Q3 11:42 | 6 | 22 | Field goal | 10–10 |
| CAR | Q3 8:09 | 7 | 24 | Punt | 10–10 |
| WAS | Q3 3:22 | 12 | 96 | Touchdown | 10–17 |
| CAR | Q4 12:14 | 3 | -15 | Punt | 10–17 |
| WAS | Q4 10:37 | 9 | 37 | Field goal | 10–20 |
| CAR | Q4 4:59 | 8 | 55 | Touchdown | 17–20 |
| WAS | Q4 1:52 | 3 | 40 | End of half | 17–20 |
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Beuerlein | 17/26 | 183 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Biakabutuka | 15 | 88 | 5.9 | 0 |
| Steve Beuerlein | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Hayes | 4 | 6 | 71 | 0 |
| Muhsin Muhammad | 6 | 8 | 48 | 0 |
| Wesley Walls | 3 | 7 | 28 | 1 |
| Tim Biakabutuka | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Kris Mangum | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Johnson | 25/35 | 234 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Davis | 23 | 133 | 5.8 | 1 |
| James Thrash | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Brad Johnson | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 |
| Adrian Murrell | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Westbrook | 5 | 7 | 53 | 0 |
| Stephen Davis | 4 | 6 | 37 | 0 |
| Albert Connell | 2 | 5 | 27 | 0 |
| Irving Fryar | 1 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| James Thrash | 3 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Stephen Alexander | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Zeron Flemister | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
1.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.3%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.63
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.19