Closing spread
MIN -4.5
Total
46.5
Model margin
+4.4est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Vikings
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.144EPA / play+0.102
- 38.4%Success rate44.7%
- -0.138EPA / dropback+0.184
- -0.156EPA / rush-0.026
- 6.1%Explosive rate10.6%
- 29.8%Third-down rate46.0%
- 35.6%Red-zone TD rate67.4%
- 0.80Points / drive2.14
- 2.7%Turnover rate2.6%
- -0.018EPA / play allowed+0.083
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 29–26 since 1999
Meetings average 41.3 points. MIN are 24-30-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | CHI–MIN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | Q1 15:00 | 7 | 54 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| CHI | Q1 10:16 | 11 | 78 | Touchdown | 7–3 |
| MIN | Q1 3:58 | 5 | 28 | Field goal | 7–6 |
| CHI | Q1 1:16 | 2 | 12 | Turnover | 7–6 |
| MIN | Q1 0:20 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 7–6 |
| CHI | Q2 14:39 | 8 | 43 | Punt | 7–6 |
| MIN | Q2 10:40 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 7–6 |
| CHI | Q2 8:57 | 6 | 45 | Field goal | 10–6 |
| MIN | Q2 5:19 | 6 | 31 | Field goal | 10–9 |
| CHI | Q2 1:51 | 11 | 36 | Field goal | 13–9 |
| MIN | Q2 0:16 | 1 | -3 | End of half | 13–9 |
| CHI | Q3 15:00 | 8 | 74 | Touchdown | 20–9 |
| MIN | Q3 10:10 | 9 | 72 | Touchdown | 20–16 |
| CHI | Q3 5:24 | 4 | 24 | Punt | 20–16 |
| MIN | Q3 3:18 | 5 | 13 | Turnover | 20–16 |
| CHI | Q3 1:14 | 3 | 10 | Punt | 20–16 |
| MIN | Q4 14:14 | 6 | 93 | Touchdown | 20–23 |
| CHI | Q4 10:59 | 6 | 23 | Punt | 20–23 |
| MIN | Q4 7:05 | 7 | 81 | Touchdown | 20–30 |
| CHI | Q4 4:35 | 10 | 80 | Touchdown | 27–30 |
| MIN | Q4 1:17 | 3 | -5 | End of half | 27–30 |
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cade McNown | 27/41 | 290 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cade McNown | 10 | 87 | 8.7 | 1 |
| James Allen | 9 | 60 | 6.7 | 0 |
| Curtis Enis | 4 | 11 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Bobby Engram | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Marty Booker | 1 | -6 | -6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Robinson | 7 | 9 | 86 | 1 |
| Bobby Engram | 8 | 12 | 61 | 0 |
| Marty Booker | 6 | 6 | 59 | 0 |
| John Allred | 2 | 3 | 36 | 1 |
| James Allen | 1 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Eddie Kennison | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Curtis Enis | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Macey Brooks | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Alonzo Mayes | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daunte Culpepper | 13/23 | 190 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Smith | 14 | 109 | 7.8 | 0 |
| Daunte Culpepper | 13 | 73 | 5.6 | 3 |
| Jimmy Kleinsasser | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Moe Williams | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randy Moss | 4 | 6 | 89 | 0 |
| Jimmy Kleinsasser | 2 | 3 | 32 | 0 |
| John Davis | 2 | 2 | 31 | 0 |
| Cris Carter | 2 | 5 | 26 | 0 |
| Andrew Jordan | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Robert Smith | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
1.97%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.8%
Expected total
46.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.82
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.38