Closing spread
PK
Total
40.5
Model margin
+3.6est.
NO perspective
Push chance
1.8%est.
Win probability
- Saints
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.143EPA / play+0.008
- 36.6%Success rate42.1%
- -0.141EPA / dropback+0.089
- -0.146EPA / rush-0.104
- 6.7%Explosive rate8.3%
- 31.8%Third-down rate42.9%
- 47.8%Red-zone TD rate56.9%
- 1.23Points / drive1.53
- 2.8%Turnover rate2.1%
- -0.110EPA / play allowed-0.071
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DET lead 8–6 since 1999
DET have won 2 straight. Meetings average 54.6 points. NO are 8-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stoney Case | 13/25 | 100 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Stewart | 25 | 78 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Stoney Case | 3 | 17 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Sedrick Irvin | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johnnie Morton | 4 | 7 | 52 | 0 |
| Sedrick Irvin | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Brian Stablein | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| David Sloan | 2 | 6 | 10 | 0 |
| Germane Crowell | 2 | 5 | 5 | 0 |
| Walter Rasby | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| James Stewart | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Blake | 18/34 | 169 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Williams | 20 | 84 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Jeff Blake | 5 | 22 | 4.4 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Horn | 5 | 7 | 58 | 0 |
| Jake Reed | 3 | 5 | 46 | 0 |
| Ricky Williams | 4 | 7 | 29 | 0 |
| Willie Jackson | 2 | 6 | 19 | 0 |
| Keith Poole | 3 | 6 | 14 | 0 |
| Chad Morton | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
1.81%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.6%
Expected total
44.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.12
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-0.11
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.58