Closing spread
PK
Total
40.5
Model margin
+3.6est.
NO perspective
Push chance
1.8%est.
Win probability
- Saints
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.143EPA / play+0.008
- 36.6%Success rate42.1%
- -0.141EPA / dropback+0.089
- -0.146EPA / rush-0.104
- 6.7%Explosive rate8.3%
- 31.8%Third-down rate42.9%
- 47.8%Red-zone TD rate56.9%
- 1.23Points / drive1.53
- 2.8%Turnover rate2.1%
- -0.110EPA / play allowed-0.071
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DET lead 8–6 since 1999
DET have won 2 straight. Meetings average 54.6 points. NO are 8-6 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | DET–NO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | Q1 15:00 | 6 | 16 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NO | Q1 11:51 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 0–0 |
| DET | Q1 10:36 | 3 | 0 | Opp touchdown | 0–7 |
| NO | Q1 9:38 | 0 | 0 | Opp touchdown | 0–7 |
| DET | Q1 9:38 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–7 |
| NO | Q1 7:35 | 4 | 19 | Punt | 0–7 |
| DET | Q1 4:27 | 7 | 25 | Punt | 0–7 |
| NO | Q1 1:12 | 6 | 28 | Punt | 0–7 |
| DET | Q2 12:35 | 5 | -1 | Punt | 0–7 |
| NO | Q2 10:20 | 1 | 8 | Turnover | 0–7 |
| DET | Q2 10:12 | 9 | 52 | Field goal | 3–7 |
| NO | Q2 5:35 | 4 | -6 | Turnover | 3–7 |
| DET | Q2 4:08 | 5 | 16 | Field goal | 6–7 |
| NO | Q2 1:53 | 10 | 34 | Punt | 6–7 |
| NO | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 6–7 |
| DET | Q3 12:57 | 6 | 22 | Punt | 6–7 |
| NO | Q3 10:04 | 8 | 44 | Punt | 6–7 |
| DET | Q3 4:53 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 6–7 |
| NO | Q3 3:31 | 3 | 0 | Opp touchdown | 12–7 |
| DET | Q3 2:06 | 1 | 0 | Opp touchdown | 14–7 |
| NO | Q3 2:06 | 6 | 20 | Field goal | 14–10 |
| DET | Q4 13:57 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 14–10 |
| NO | Q4 12:09 | 5 | 29 | Turnover | 14–10 |
| DET | Q4 10:00 | 3 | 6 | Turnover | 14–10 |
| NO | Q4 8:28 | 5 | 9 | Missed field goal | 14–10 |
| DET | Q4 6:59 | 8 | 33 | Turnover on downs | 14–10 |
| NO | Q4 3:01 | 10 | 58 | Turnover on downs | 14–10 |
| DET | Q4 0:44 | 1 | -1 | End of half | 14–10 |
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stoney Case | 13/25 | 100 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Stewart | 25 | 78 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Stoney Case | 3 | 17 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Sedrick Irvin | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johnnie Morton | 4 | 7 | 52 | 0 |
| Sedrick Irvin | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Brian Stablein | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| David Sloan | 2 | 6 | 10 | 0 |
| Germane Crowell | 2 | 5 | 5 | 0 |
| Walter Rasby | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| James Stewart | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Blake | 18/34 | 169 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Williams | 20 | 84 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Jeff Blake | 5 | 22 | 4.4 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Horn | 5 | 7 | 58 | 0 |
| Jake Reed | 3 | 5 | 46 | 0 |
| Ricky Williams | 4 | 7 | 29 | 0 |
| Willie Jackson | 2 | 6 | 19 | 0 |
| Keith Poole | 3 | 6 | 14 | 0 |
| Chad Morton | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
1.81%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.6%
Expected total
44.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.12
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-0.11
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.58