Closing spread
IND -3.5
Total
44
Model margin
+1.4est.
KC perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.123EPA / play+0.025
- 45.8%Success rate41.2%
- +0.249EPA / dropback+0.123
- -0.069EPA / rush-0.159
- 9.0%Explosive rate9.4%
- 46.8%Third-down rate36.7%
- 62.8%Red-zone TD rate52.2%
- 2.04Points / drive1.42
- 2.5%Turnover rate2.5%
- +0.005EPA / play allowed+0.025
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 12–6 since 1999
KC have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.9 points. KC are 5-13 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | IND–KC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KC | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 0–0 |
| IND | Q1 12:55 | 5 | 49 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| KC | Q1 10:20 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–0 |
| IND | Q1 8:27 | 2 | 12 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| KC | Q1 7:36 | 6 | 12 | Punt | 0–0 |
| IND | Q1 5:35 | 11 | 82 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| KC | Q2 14:15 | 10 | 38 | Punt | 7–0 |
| IND | Q2 9:10 | 4 | 10 | Punt | 7–0 |
| KC | Q2 6:45 | 4 | 27 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| IND | Q2 5:23 | 4 | 22 | Punt | 7–7 |
| KC | Q2 2:57 | 5 | 25 | Punt | 7–7 |
| IND | Q2 0:53 | 5 | 23 | End of half | 7–7 |
| IND | Q3 15:00 | 4 | 25 | Punt | 7–7 |
| KC | Q3 12:30 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 7–7 |
| IND | Q3 11:07 | 5 | 54 | Touchdown | 14–7 |
| KC | Q3 8:23 | 10 | 64 | Touchdown | 14–14 |
| IND | Q3 4:25 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 14–14 |
| KC | Q3 3:30 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 14–14 |
| IND | Q3 2:33 | 8 | 27 | Field goal | 17–14 |
| KC | Q4 13:37 | 3 | 4 | Opp touchdown | 24–14 |
| IND | Q4 12:38 | 0 | 0 | Opp touchdown | 24–14 |
| KC | Q4 12:38 | 8 | 36 | Punt | 24–14 |
| IND | Q4 8:51 | 8 | 58 | Field goal | 27–14 |
| KC | Q4 4:01 | 7 | 57 | Turnover on downs | 27–14 |
| IND | Q4 2:48 | 6 | 24 | End of half | 27–14 |
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 22/32 | 273 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edgerrin James | 28 | 124 | 4.4 | 1 |
| Abdul-Karim al-Jabbar | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
| Peyton Manning | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marvin Harrison | 9 | 12 | 115 | 0 |
| Jerome Pathon | 3 | 4 | 55 | 0 |
| Edgerrin James | 6 | 7 | 40 | 1 |
| E.G. Green | 2 | 3 | 35 | 0 |
| Ken Dilger | 2 | 4 | 28 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elvis Grbac | 16/37 | 212 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Moreau | 3 | 15 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Mike Cloud | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sylvester Morris | 3 | 7 | 58 | 0 |
| Derrick Alexander | 5 | 10 | 50 | 1 |
| Tony Gonzalez | 2 | 6 | 34 | 0 |
| Kevin Lockett | 2 | 7 | 29 | 0 |
| Kimble Anders | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Troy Drayton | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
7.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.9%
Expected total
46.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.12
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.44