Closing spread
JAX -10.5
Total
38.5
Model margin
-0.8est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Browns
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.010EPA / play-0.217
- 41.4%Success rate31.8%
- +0.066EPA / dropback-0.208
- -0.071EPA / rush-0.234
- 8.0%Explosive rate5.5%
- 42.8%Third-down rate28.6%
- 55.4%Red-zone TD rate42.0%
- 1.87Points / drive0.78
- 2.4%Turnover rate2.9%
- -0.022EPA / play allowed+0.048
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
JAX lead 11–8 since 1999
Meetings average 38.8 points. CLE are 9-10 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Brunell | 24/34 | 301 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stacey Mack | 23 | 74 | 3.2 | 1 |
| Chris Howard | 13 | 45 | 3.5 | 1 |
| Mark Brunell | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Jamie Martin | 3 | -5 | -1.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keenan McCardell | 9 | 11 | 115 | 0 |
| Kyle Brady | 5 | 6 | 85 | 0 |
| Jimmy Smith | 6 | 10 | 52 | 1 |
| Chris Howard | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Damon Jones | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Alvis Whitted | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Couch | 19/27 | 160 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Errict Rhett | 14 | 64 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Tim Couch | 2 | 32 | 16.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JaJuan Dawson | 6 | 7 | 83 | 1 |
| Kevin Johnson | 3 | 4 | 32 | 0 |
| Aaron Shea | 1 | 2 | 24 | 0 |
| Errict Rhett | 5 | 7 | 13 | 0 |
| David Patten | 2 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
| Darrin Chiaverini | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Dennis Northcutt | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
2.80%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.0%
Expected total
42.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-6.47
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+3.12
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.78