Closing spread
DAL -6
Total
39.5
Model margin
-1.1est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
2.8%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.003EPA / play-0.074
- 40.3%Success rate41.5%
- +0.063EPA / dropback-0.085
- -0.138EPA / rush-0.061
- 7.5%Explosive rate8.6%
- 41.3%Third-down rate36.8%
- 52.6%Red-zone TD rate46.9%
- 1.62Points / drive1.35
- 2.5%Turnover rate3.7%
- -0.085EPA / play allowed+0.022
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 29–26 since 1999
Meetings average 44.8 points. DAL are 27-27-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 16/28 | 130 | 1 | 2 |
| Koy Detmer | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duce Staley | 26 | 201 | 7.7 | 1 |
| Brian Mitchell | 8 | 39 | 4.9 | 1 |
| Donovan McNabb | 5 | 29 | 5.8 | 1 |
| Stanley Pritchett | 6 | 29 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Charles Johnson | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duce Staley | 4 | 7 | 61 | 0 |
| Todd Pinkston | 3 | 3 | 29 | 0 |
| Luther Broughton | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Alex Van Dyke | 1 | 4 | 8 | 0 |
| Chad Lewis | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Charles Johnson | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Brian Mitchell | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Cecil Martin | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Torrance Small | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 |
| Jeff Thomason | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Dameane Douglas | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randall Cunningham | 13/26 | 135 | 1 | 1 |
| Troy Aikman | 0/5 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raghib Ismail | 2 | 33 | 16.5 | 0 |
| Emmitt Smith | 7 | 29 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Randall Cunningham | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Chris Warren | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joey Galloway | 4 | 12 | 62 | 1 |
| Raghib Ismail | 3 | 5 | 36 | 0 |
| Wane McGarity | 1 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Michael Wiley | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| James McKnight | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Chris Warren | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| Jackie Harris | 2 | 4 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
2.83%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
46.2%
Expected total
42.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.62
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.05