2000 · Week 1 · Division

Final

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Donovan McNabb

41·14

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Troy Aikman

Texas Stadium · outdoors · astroturf · 109°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

DAL -6

Total

39.5

Model margin

-1.1est.

DAL perspective

Push chance

2.8%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Cowboys
  • Eagles

How each play moved the game.

Cowboys winsEagles wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Eaglesedge mapCowboys
  • -0.003EPA / play-0.074
  • 40.3%Success rate41.5%
  • +0.063EPA / dropback-0.085
  • -0.138EPA / rush-0.061
  • 7.5%Explosive rate8.6%
  • 41.3%Third-down rate36.8%
  • 52.6%Red-zone TD rate46.9%
  • 1.62Points / drive1.35
  • 2.5%Turnover rate3.7%
  • -0.085EPA / play allowed+0.022

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 29–27 since 1999

DAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45 points. DAL are 28-27-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7DAL @ PHI38–21DAL
2025 · W12PHI @ DAL21–24DAL
2025 · W1DAL @ PHI20–24PHI
2024 · W17DAL @ PHI7–41PHI
2024 · W10PHI @ DAL34–6PHI
2023 · W14PHI @ DAL13–33DAL
2023 · W9DAL @ PHI23–28PHI
2022 · W16PHI @ DAL34–40DAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPHI–DAL
DALQ1 15:0000Touchdown0–0
PHIQ1 15:00957Touchdown7–0
DALQ1 10:59629Punt7–0
PHIQ1 7:54537Punt7–0
DALQ1 5:3433Punt7–0
PHIQ1 4:38935Touchdown14–0
DALQ1 0:0237Opp touchdown21–0
PHIQ2 13:4000Opp touchdown21–0
DALQ2 13:403-11Punt21–0
PHIQ2 12:121249Field goal24–0
DALQ2 6:233-1Punt24–0
PHIQ2 4:363-1Turnover24–0
DALQ2 3:4332Field goal24–3
PHIQ2 2:5344Punt24–3
DALQ2 0:4210Turnover24–3
PHIQ2 0:3820Turnover24–3
DALQ2 0:28436Field goal24–6
PHIQ3 15:001361Field goal27–6
DALQ3 6:3038Punt27–6
PHIQ3 4:44972Touchdown34–6
DALQ4 14:5631Punt34–6
PHIQ4 13:16266Touchdown41–6
DALQ4 12:221480Touchdown41–14
PHIQ4 6:45632Turnover41–14
DALQ4 3:25713Punt41–14
PHIQ4 1:58413End of half41–14

Box score

Individual performances

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Donovan McNabb16/2813012
Koy Detmer0/1001

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Duce Staley262017.71
Brian Mitchell8394.91
Donovan McNabb5295.81
Stanley Pritchett6294.80
Charles Johnson188.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Duce Staley47610
Todd Pinkston33290
Luther Broughton22120
Alex Van Dyke1480
Chad Lewis1260
Charles Johnson1250
Brian Mitchell1150
Cecil Martin1120
Torrance Small1410
Jeff Thomason1111
Dameane Douglas0100

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Randall Cunningham13/2613511
Troy Aikman0/5001

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Raghib Ismail23316.50
Emmitt Smith7294.10
Randall Cunningham155.00
Chris Warren300.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Joey Galloway412621
Raghib Ismail35360
Wane McGarity13100
Michael Wiley11100
James McKnight1290
Chris Warren1350
Jackie Harris2430

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +64.6%3.0%7.4%7.2%2.8%4.2%

Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Eagles.

Half-point at risk

2.83%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

46.2%

Expected total

42.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.62
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.05