2000 · Week 1 · Division

Final

Chargers

San Diego

QB Ryan Leaf

6·9

Raiders

Oakland

QB Rich Gannon

Network Associates Coliseum · outdoors · grass · 64°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

OAK -6.5

Total

39.5

Model margin

+2.6est.

OAK perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Raiders
  • Chargers

How each play moved the game.

Raiders winsChargers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

The rivalry

SD lead 33–22 since 1999

Meetings average 43.8 points. OAK are 23-31-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2LV @ LAC26–14RAIDERS
2025 · W13LV @ LAC14–31CHARGERS
2025 · W2LAC @ LV20–9CHARGERS
2024 · W18LAC @ LV34–20CHARGERS
2024 · W1LV @ LAC10–22CHARGERS
2023 · W15LAC @ LV21–63RAIDERS
2023 · W4LV @ LAC17–24CHARGERS
2022 · W13LAC @ LV20–27RAIDERS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSD–OAK
LVQ1411Punt0–0
LACQ1 13:4232Punt0–0
LVQ1 12:53310Punt0–0
LACQ1 11:0035Punt0–0
LVQ1 9:0838Punt0–0
LACQ1 7:051044Turnover0–0
LVQ1 3:4034Punt0–0
LACQ1 2:511031Punt0–0
LVQ2 14:411036Punt0–0
LACQ2 9:4449Punt0–0
LVQ2 7:42419Punt0–0
LACQ2 5:4135Turnover0–0
LVQ2 4:3633Missed field goal0–0
LACQ2 3:46414Punt0–0
LVQ2 2:25626End of half0–0
LACQ3 15:00615Punt0–0
LVQ3 12:02838Punt0–0
LACQ3 8:002-2Safety0–2
LVQ3 7:2332Punt0–2
LACQ3 5:28746Turnover0–2
LVQ3 3:05519Punt0–2
LACQ3 0:171675Touchdown6–2
LVQ4 9:4139Punt6–2
LACQ4 7:3032Punt6–2
LVQ4 5:30853Touchdown6–9
LACQ4 2:3749Turnover6–9
LVQ4 1:253-5End of half6–9

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +6.54.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%2.7%

Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Chargers.

Half-point at risk

4.74%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.0%

Expected total

44.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)0.00
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.56

One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.